Whalesbook
Dekho bhai, green hydrogen ke market mein abhi do alag-alag raaste dikh rahe hain. China aur India ekdum full-speed mein state support se production badha rahe hain. Wahi, Western countries cost ki wajah se apne goals kam kar rahe hain.
India toh apna energy security kaafi strong karna chahta hai aur imported natural gas kam karna chahta hai. Isliye, government ne $2.1 billion ka subsidy diya hai. Target hai ki 2030 tak saal mein 5 million metric tons green hydrogen banayein. Aur 2032 tak production cost ko $3 per kg se girakar lagbhag $2 per kg tak lane ka aim hai.
China bhi peeche nahi hai, wo toh apna industrial leadership maintain karna chahta hai. Pichhle saal hi unhone $3.7 billion green hydrogen production mein lagaya. Forecasts kehti hain ki 2031 tak China 2.6 million tons saalana produce kar sakta hai. Agar windy areas mein cost $2 per kg tak aa gayi, toh ye coal se banne wale hydrogen ke price ke aas-paas hoga. Beijing ke liye toh ye ek major industry ban gayi hai. Iska best example hai Envision Energy ka plant, jo Mongolia mein hai. Ye duniya ka sabse bada green ammonia facility hai, aur ye khud ko cost-competitive banane mein laga hai, bina subsidy ke bhi.
Ab ye Asia ka rapid expansion Western countries ke market-led approach se bilkul alag hai. USA aur EU bhi kuch incentives de rahe hain, par India ki subsidies ($0.3 to $0.5 per kg) US/EU ke $3 to $4 per kg se kaafi kam hain. Isse India ke exports par impact padh sakta hai, even though unka production cost kam hai. Green hydrogen market abhi $4.3 billion ka hai 2022 mein, aur 2030 tak $59.2 billion tak pahunchne ka expectation hai. Par agar China aur India itna zyada produce karne lage aur West mein demand utni fast nahi badhi, toh oversupply ho sakta hai.
Sabse bada use case hai steel industry ka, jo global greenhouse gas emissions ka 7% se zyada responsible hai. Green hydrogen se steel banane ke methods (jaise H2-DRI) coal ko replace kar sakte hain, aur emissions lagbhag zero ho sakte hain. India ki JSW Steel toh ye adopt kar rahi hai, aur JSW Energy bhi ispar project bana rahi hai. BPCL bhi refinery aur transport fuel ke liye green hydrogen use kar rahi hai. Aur haan, 2026 se EU ka Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) bhi aa raha hai, jisse Indian producers ko exports ke liye cleaner fuels use karne ka pressure hoga.
Par bhai, itne bade investments aur targets ke bawajood, is green hydrogen ke rapid rise mein kai risks hain. China aur India mein jo itni heavy state subsidies mil rahi hain, usse market mein imbalance aa sakta hai. Ye subsidies growth toh badha rahi hain, par policy change hone par ya global oversupply hone par ye market risky ho jayega. India ka subsidies par dependence uske exports ko market mein less competitive bana sakta hai aur future policy shifts ke liye susceptible bana sakta hai. Production cost abhi bhi kaafi high hai. China mein around $4/kg aur India mein around $3/kg (target $2/kg) hai, jo grey hydrogen se abhi bhi zyada hai. Isliye government support ki zarurat hai.
Infrastructure ki bhi badi kami hai, khas kar export logistics aur domestic distribution mein. Lotte Fine Chemical toh China se green ammonia import kar raha hai, jo ek positive sign hai. Par bade scale par domestic production aur exports ke liye jo extensive infrastructure chahiye, wo abhi build ho raha hai. Aur ek cheez, India ki electrolyser manufacturing capacity China se kam hai, jo cost ko aur badha sakta hai. India ka total investment US, EU aur Gulf countries ke combined se kam hai, jis wajah se global market share pakadne mein mushkil ho sakti hai.
Analysts toh keh rahe hain ki global green hydrogen market mein zabardast growth hone wali hai. 2030 tak $59.2 billion ka ho jayega, climate goals aur new technologies ke chalte. India ka National Green Hydrogen Mission toh target kar raha hai ki Rs 8 lakh crore (yani $100 billion) se zyada ka investment aaye aur 6 lakh se zyada jobs create hon. India ko global production aur export center banane ka aim hai. China ka focus bhi iss industry par hai aur unka large-scale development dikhata hai ki wo production mein dominate karte rahenge. Western countries apni policies bana rahe hain, par wo Asia ke compared mein zyada measured aur cost-aware approach le rahe hain.