Whalesbook
Asal mein, company ne is quarter mein apne EBITDA ko 23% tak badhaaya, jo ab ₹12 billion ho gaya hai. Profit mein bhi 18% ka shot laga hai, ab yeh ₹4.4 billion par hai. Iske peeche ka reason hai company ki smart moves jaise Chandigarh DISCOM ko acquire karna aur Chandrapur thermal plant ke liye acche rates par naye power purchase agreements sign karna. Lekin ek choti si dikkat hai ki delayed tariff orders ke wajah se cost adjustments mein problems aa rahi hain. Haalanki, CESC ne regulatory assets mein aur paisa add karna band kar diya hai, phir bhi ₹46 billion ka amount abhi bhi pending hai. Share market mein bhi stock thoda upar gaya hai, par volumes se lagta hai investors abhi thode cautious hain. Company ki market cap lagbhag ₹50,000 crore hai aur P/E ratio 25x ke aas-paas hai, toh growth ko maintain karna padega.
Ab asli dhamaka future ka hai! CESC ne ek super ambitious ₹320 billion ka capex plan nikala hai, jismein se ₹230 billion sirf renewable energy capacity badhane mein jayenge. Last quarter mein hi 800MW ke PPA add hue aur 550MW aur secure kiya gaya. Sirf yehi nahi, distribution network ko upgrade karne aur domestic solar manufacturing bhi start karne ka plan hai. Is move se company future energy market ke liye ready ho jayegi aur desh ke clean energy goals mein bhi contribute karegi. India ka power sector toh waise bhi renewables ki taraf tezi se badh raha hai, policy support aur awareness ki wajah se.
Par bhai, har growth story mein kuch challenges toh hote hi hain. Ye jo ₹46 billion ka regulatory asset hai, woh essentially unrecovered costs ya deferred revenue hai, jo future profits aur return on equity par asar daal sakta hai. India mein power distribution mein tariff orders delay hone ka issue common hai, jis se company ko purane cost structure par kaam karna padta hai. Jab hum competitors ko dekhte hain, toh Adani Green Energy jaise pure-play renewable players 70x P/E ke upar trade ho rahe hain, jo dikhata hai ki market green energy ko kitna value karta hai. Tata Power bhi aise hi regulatory issues handle kar raha hai, aur NTPC jaise companies jinka base thermal hai, woh 18x P/E par hain. Ye ₹320 billion ka bada investment plan execute karna bhi ek significant execution risk hai. Agar projects mein koi bhi gadbad hui, toh company ke finances par pressure aa sakta hai aur shareholder value kam ho sakti hai.
Ab brokers kya keh rahe hain? ICICI Securities ne toh 'Buy' rating maintain rakhi hai aur price target ₹220 kar diya hai. Baaki analysts bhi mostly 'Hold' ya 'Buy' ratings de rahe hain, aur average price targets abhi ke levels se thoda upar ka potential dikha rahe hain. Investors ko abhi company ke renewable projects par progress aur regulatory issues ka resolution carefully monitor karna hoga, kyunki yahi sab factors uski future financial health aur stock performance decide karenge.