Whalesbook
Acha toh, profit toh ₹168 crore par pahunch gaya, jo pichhle saal se 8.9% zyada hai. Iska main reason hai operational volumes mein 13% ka zabardast jump! Revenue bhi 16.6% badh kar ₹1,695 crore ho gaya. Monday ko toh stock bhi 1.46% badh kar ₹636 par band hua.
Par yahaan ek twist hai, bhai. Company ke operating margins thode kam ho gaye hain, 17.76% par aa gaye hain, pichhle saal ke 18.32% se. Iska reason hai natural gas expenses 18% badh gaye. Woh log ab costly spot LNG pe zyada depend kar rahe hain, aur cheaper domestic gas ka share kam ho gaya hai (CNG ke liye APM gas 36% se 41% tak gir gaya). CEO ne kaha hai ki West Asia ke issues aur high LNG prices ki wajah se costs badhi hain.
Company ne ye bhi bola ki customers pe poora cost burden nahi daala taaki volume bana rahe. Aur haan, infrastructure toh badha hi rahe hain – 705 CNG stations, 11 lakh PNG connections, aur 5,100 EV charging points lag gaye hain.
Ab sabse badi baat – valuation. Adani Total Gas ka P/E ratio lagbhag 107.37 hai, jo Indraprastha Gas (IGL) ke 13.90 aur Mahanagar Gas (MGL) ke 11.53 se bahut zyada hai. Matlab, market isse future mein bohot growth expect kar raha hai, par yeh high P/E future projections pe depend karta hai, aur cost fluctuations isko test kar sakte hain.
Indian city gas sector toh waise bhi badh raha hai, saal ka 12.67% se 12.84% tak. Govt bhi natural gas ko energy mix mein 15% tak laana chahti hai. ATGL ka stock pichhle saal 3.1% badha, jo Nifty 50 ke 1% gain se behtar hai. Par LNG pe reliance global risks aur price swings ko invite karta hai.
Sabse bada challenge ye hai ki ATGL expensive spot LNG pe rely kar raha hai, jisse margins volatile ho sakte hain. Aur yeh 107 ka P/E ratio bohot high hai, matlab expectations bhi bohot high hain. Analyst coverage bhi kam hai, kuch reports ne toh stock ko downgrade bhi kiya hai. Toh bhai, volumes toh badh rahe hain, par high costs manage karna aur growth banae rakhna badi challenge hai.