Whalesbook
Infrastructure Projects Ne Machaya Dhamal
Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. (AESL) ke shares 15 April 2026 ko ₹1,205.20 ke naye 52-week high tak pahunche, jisme 3% ka intraday gain tha. Ye surge isliye hua kyunki unhone Mumbai mein Kudus aur Aarey ke beech 1,000 MW ka HVDC transmission link successfully start kar diya hai. Yeh duniya ka pehla compact HVDC substation hai jo renewable energy ko grid se connect karne aur city mein electricity ko stable banane mein help karega. Is project ka aim hai ki city mein hi power banane par dependence kam ho, jaisa ki 2020 ke Mumbai blackout ke baad socha gaya tha.
Idhar Adani Power bhi pichhe nahi raha. Stock ne ₹187.15 ka 52-week high chhoya. Iska reason hai Crisil Ratings ka kehna ki company ne jo pending dues the, jinme carrying costs aur late payment charges bhi the, woh recover kar liye hain. Isse unki revenue visibility badh gayi hai, khaas kar jab tariff adjustments ho rahe hain. Company ne apne operational capacity ka 95% se zyada hissa long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) ke through secure kar liya hai, matlab clients se risk kam ho gaya hai aur investors ka confidence bhi badha hai.
El Niño Effect Se Power Demand Badhne Ki Umeed
Ab aata hai sabse interesting part - El Niño effect! Analysts predict kar rahe hain ki El Niño conditions ki wajah se power demand kaafi badhegi, khaas kar June se September tak jo South West Monsoon ka time hota hai. Garmi aur kam baarish ki wajah se AC ki demand badhegi, jisse electricity consumption badhega. JM Financial Institutional Equities ka kehna hai ki shaam ke time power deficit ho sakta hai aur May mid se September tak demand spike karegi, bilkul 2023 jaisa. Ye sab coal-fired power aur merchant power prices ke liye accha hai, jiska fayda Adani Power aur Adani Green Energy ko milega. March mein power demand growth thoda slow tha, sirf 1.7% tha, par FY27 ke liye estimate 5.5% se 6.5% ke beech growth ka hai.
Industry Competition Aur Market Position
Market mein competition ki baat karein toh Adani Power ka mukabla NTPC Limited, Tata Power, JSW Energy jaise bade players se hai. AESL ke liye bhi NTPC, Tata Power, JSW Energy aur Power Grid Corporation of India competitors hain. AESL ka goal grid stability badhana hai, par valuation thoda high lag raha hai industry peers ke comparison mein.
Kanoon Aur Risks: Sab Kuch Acha Nahi?
Par bhai, sab kuch itna bhi smooth nahi hai. Adani Group abhi bhi kaafi regulatory aur ethical concerns se ghira hua hai. US authorities jaise SEC aur Department of Justice, Gautam Adani aur other executives ke khilaf bribery aur fraud schemes ki investigation kar rahe hain. Ye allegations hain ki energy contracts paane ke liye Indian government officials ko hundreds of millions of dollars diye gaye the aur yeh baat US investors se chhupai gayi thi. Adani Group hamesha se yeh sab allegations ko 'baseless' batata aaya hai aur cases ko dismiss karne ki koshish mein hai, par yeh legal battles ek bada risk bane hue hain.
Pichhle saal Hindenburg report ne bhi stock manipulation aur accounting fraud ke allegations lagaye the, jisse kaafi volatility aayi thi. Aur bhi controversies hain jaise customs tax evasion, illegal imports, aur Carmichael coal mine jaise projects se environmental damage. Cronyism ke allegations bhi lage hain, group ke politicians se close ties aur privatization mein issues ko lekar. Yeh sab cheezein growth aur investor confidence par impact kar sakti hain.
Analysts Kya Keh Rahe Hain?
Analysts toh Adani Power ko summer 2026 ke liye top utility pick bata rahe hain kyunki power demand badhne wali hai. Lekin forward-looking estimates Q4 FY26 ke liye suggest karte hain ki Adani Power ka net profit year-on-year decline ho sakta hai, jabki Adani Energy Solutions se acchi profit growth ki umeed hai. Market mein sentiment theek ho raha hai kyunki US regulatory disputes solve ho rahe hain aur court ne case dismissal ki pleas accept ki hain, jisse Adani Group stocks mein rally dikh rahi hai. Experts ka kehna hai ki thodi si bhi legal clarity milne par sentiment-driven rallies aa sakti hain, kyunki group ki performance hamesha regulatory headlines se affected rahi hai.