Whalesbook
Toh bhaiyon, Adani Power ne Q4 FY26 mein dhamakedaar results diye hain. Unka profit 64% zordaar bhaga hai, pahuche ₹4,271 crore tak. Par asli picture thodi complex hai. Ye profit ka spike revenue growth se nahi, balki tax mein jo relief mili hai usse aaya hai. Revenues toh practically flat, bas 0.10% gir kar ₹14,233 crore pe rahe.
Ache baat ye hai ki company ka EBITDA (Interest, Tax, Depreciation se pehle ka profit) 27% badh kar ₹6,498 crore ho gaya hai. Aur unki PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements) ab 95% tak cover ho gayi hain, matlab revenue ki visibility acchi hai. Power sales volume bhi thoda badha hai.
Stock market ki baat karein toh, April mein share prices ₹223 ke aas-paas the, aur saal tak lagbhag 55.92% badh chuke hain.
Ab valuation ki taraf dekhte hain. Adani Power ka P/E ratio competitors jaise NTPC (20.23x) aur Power Grid (20.23x) se zyada hai, par Tata Power (33.01x) ke aas-paas hai. Company ne apna debt bhi kaafi kam kiya hai, debt-to-equity ratio ab 0.68-0.81 hai.
Lekin, India ki new energy policy, NEP 2026, renewables par focus kar rahi hai aur net-zero ka target hai. Adani Power toh abhi bhi thermal power (coal jaisi cheezein) par bahut zyada depend karta hai, unka renewable energy mein contribution abhi 0% hai! Aur company ne plans banaye hain ki FY32 tak thermal capacity ko 41.87 GW tak pahunchayenge. Ye policy ke trend se thoda alag hai, na?
Toh sawal yeh hai ki kya ye profit sustainable hai? Kyunki profit tax aur non-operational income se aaya, revenue se nahi. Aur fossil fuel par itni reliance future mein problem create kar sakti hai. Analyst ratings abhi 'Buy' ya 'Strong Buy' hain, par price targets ₹180-187 ke aas-paas hain, jo current price se kam lagte hain. MarketsMOJO ne toh rating 'Sell' se 'Hold' kar di hai, matlab neutral view.
CEO S B Khyalia ka kehna hai ki thermal power energy security ke liye important hai. Company long-term contracts se apni expansion ko fund karne ka plan bana rahi hai. Overall, analysts growth expect kar rahe hain, par current market prices par thoda caution dikha rahe hain.