Whalesbook
Expansion toh mast hai, par kuch chinta bhi hain...
Sagar Adani ne bataya ki India ki energy requirements bohot zyada hain, aur company renewables, storage, transmission, aur green hydrogen mein bada role play kar rahi hai. Target hai March 2026 tak 19.3 GW operational capacity ka, jisme FY26 mein 5.1 GW naye additions honge. Khavda Renewable Energy Park jaisa massive project bhi chal raha hai. India ka goal 2030 tak 500 GW renewable energy aur 2047 tak 1.8 TW capacity ka hai, jisme Adani Green fit baithta hai.
April 2026 ke end mein, Adani Green Energy ka market cap tha around ₹2.05 lakh crore, aur share price ₹1,250 ke aas-paas chal raha tha. FY26 ke liye revenue ₹11,602 crore raha, jo 22% saal-dar-saal zyada hai. EBITDA margins bhi kaafi strong hain, around 91%.
Debt ka bojh aur Valuation ka Chakkar
Par bhai, yahi toh problem hai. March 2026 tak company ka net debt ₹91,252 crore ho gaya hai, jo pehle ₹64,462 crore tha. Issi se fixed assets bhi 28.86% badh kar ₹76,309 crore ho gaye. Iska Debt to EBITDA ratio 10.92x hai, jo competitors jaise JSW Energy (jiska P/E around 40x hai aur debt profile conservative hai) aur Tata Power (P/E around 55x) se kaafi high hai.
Share ka valuation bhi bohot zyada hai, P/E ratio lagbhag 130-134x chal raha hai. Is wajah se, April 2026 mein ICICI Securities aur JM Financial ne rating ko 'Buy' se down-grade karke 'Add' kar diya. Analysts ka kehna hai ki stock price 'too fast too soon' bhag gaya hai, matlab growth ki expectations already price mein include ho chuki hain. Emkay Global ne ₹1,500 ka target diya hai, but overall sentiment thoda cautious ho raha hai. Foreign institutional investors ne bhi apna stake March 2025 ke 12.45% se kam karke March 2026 mein 11.10% kar liya hai.
Financial Risks aur TotalEnergies ka Pause
Itni badi expansion plans ke liye bohot sara paisa chahiye, jisse debt servicing aur future financing pe pressure aata hai. Company merchant offtake (long-term contracts ke bahar power bechna) bhi 17% se 25% tak badhana chahti hai 2030 tak, jisse revenue mein uncertainty aa sakti hai.
Sabse badi news November 2024 mein aayi jab TotalEnergies ne, jo ek important stakeholder hai, allegations ke chalte Adani Group mein naye investments pause kar diye. Isse future capital aur partnerships ko lekar uncertainty badh gayi aur investor confidence pe asar pada. Isi wajah se company ka stock 9% tak gira tha. High debt, merchant sales pe badhti dependence, aur ek cautious market, yeh sab milkar challenges khade kar rahe hain.