Whalesbook
Achanak se Adani Green ne growth slow kyun kar di?
Dekho, Adani Green ke paas paisa aur capacity toh bahut hai, par India ke grid ka jo system hai na, woh utna fast nahi badh raha. Iska matlab hai ki woh bijli bana toh sakte hain, par use grid tak pahunchana mushkil ho raha hai. Isi wajah se, pichhle saal company ko lagbhag ₹5 billion ka nuksan hua hai, sirf isliye kyunki woh power generate kar rahe the par use bhej nahi pa rahe the.
Aur yeh problem sirf Adani Green ki nahi hai, poore India ke renewable sector ko iski maar pad rahi hai. Reports bolti hain ki desh mein lagbhag 50 GW ki renewable capacity sirf grid issues ke karan atki hui hai. Yahan tak ki Rajasthan jaise states mein bhi 4.8 GW clean energy projects power bech nahi paa rahe. Is situation ko dekh kar, industry experts developers ko keh rahe hain ki filhaal projects start karne mein der karein, jab tak grid infrastructure behtar na ho jaaye.
Ab dusri taraf dekho, kuch competitors alag raaste pe chal rahe hain. Jaise ki ReNew Energy ne pichhle financial year mein 2.4 GW capacity add ki hai, total 12.6 GW ho gayi hai. Tata Power bhi apna transmission upgrade kar raha hai.
Finance ki baat karein toh, Adani Green ka Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio kaafi high hai, lagbhag 111x se 140x chal raha hai, jabki industry ka average sirf 22.8x hai. Company ki market value ₹200,068.9 crore ke aas paas hai aur analysts ka average target price ₹1,181 INR hai. Lekin growth kam karne ka ye decision investors ko thoda chintit kar sakta hai jo fast expansion dekhte hain.
Asal mein, ye grid ka issue India ke 500 GW non-fossil fuel capacity ke goal 2030 tak pahunchne mein bhi badi rukawat ban sakta hai. Issi liye sarkaar aur companies ko grid infrastructure mein zabardast investment karni hogi. Fitch Ratings ne company ke outlook ko Stable kiya tha, par US mein kuch board members par report bhi aayi thi. Haalanki, SEBI ne koi regulatory breach nahi paya. Lekin ye sab cheezein investors ki nazar mein rehti hain.
Basically, agar Adani Green ne growth slow nahi ki hoti, toh woh market mein mauke kho sakti thi ya aggressive competitors aage nikal jaate. Par ab ye cautious approach ek valuation puzzle ban gaya hai.