Whalesbook
Toh hua kya hai? West Asia mein jo tension hai na, usne crude oil ki prices ko bhaga diya hai. Brent crude prices March 2026 tak $94 per barrel cross kar gaya hai, jo saal ki shuruat se 50% zyada hai. Aur yeh pehle $70 se bhi neeche tha. Strait of Hormuz jaise important shipping routes par problem hai, is wajah se sab cheezon ke daam badh rahe hain.
Aur India? Bhai, India toh apna 55% oil aur 90% se bhi zyada LPG sirf West Asia se import karta hai. Toh ab import bill toh badhegi hi. Inflation bhi pakka badhegi, CPI forecast ab 4.5% ya usse zyada ho sakta hai FY27 mein. Is wajah se Indian Rupee bhi kamzor hua, ₹95.21 ke record low par pahunch gaya tha 31 March, 2026 ko.
Par haan, ek achi baat yeh hai ki baaki G20 countries ke comparison mein India phir bhi tezi se grow karega. IMF 6.4% aur World Bank 6.5% FY27 ke liye estimate kar rahe hain. Toh growth toh hai, bas thodi kam ho gayi hai.
Baki bhi ratings aa rahi hain. Fitch Ratings pehle hi 6.9% (FY26) ka forecast de chuka hai, aur Goldman Sachs 6.7% (2026) keh raha hai. Ab dekho yeh conflict kitna chalta hai aur iska poora impact kya hota hai. RBI apni April meeting mein repo rate 5.25% par hi rakh sakta hai, matlab koi change ki ummeed kam hai, kyunki economy ko support bhi karna hai aur inflation ko bhi control karna hai.
Sirf oil nahi yaar, India fertilisers bhi West Asia se import karta hai. Toh kheti-baadi ka kharcha bhi badhega aur khaane peene ki cheezein bhi mehngi ho sakti hain. Aur suno, West Asia se jo hamare paas paisa aata hai na, matlab remittances, woh 38% hai total foreign inflows ka. Agar wahan jobs gayi ya economy down hui, toh hamare paas aane wala paisa bhi kam ho jayega. Isse hamara current account deficit 1-1.5% tak ja sakta hai 2026-27 mein. Yeh situation pehle ke oil shocks se bhi zyada critical hai.
Aur government ke liye bhi tension hai. Fuel aur fertilizer par subsidy ka kharcha badhega. Isse government ka spending badhega aur revenue kam ho sakta hai. Debt kam karne ka jo target hai, woh bhi slow ho sakta hai. Fitch ne India ki rating 'BBB-' rakhi hai, stable outlook ke saath, par high debt levels ek chinta ka vishay zaroor hai. Chhote-mote US tariffs ka risk bhi hai, exports par asar dal sakta hai.