Kalshi, Coinbase: States ne kiya Prediction Markets par Attack! Kya yeh Gambling hai ya Finance?

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AuthorIshaan Verma|Published at:
Kalshi, Coinbase: States ne kiya Prediction Markets par Attack! Kya yeh Gambling hai ya Finance?
Overview

Bhai, Washington state ne Kalshi naam ki company par seedha case thok diya hai! Kehte hain unke prediction markets illegal gambling hain. Iski wajah se Coinbase jaise partners bhi trouble mein aa gaye hain, aur ab federal vs state laws ka bada clash shuru ho gaya hai.

Okay, toh asli scene yeh hai ki Washington state ne Kalshi pe case daal diya. Unka accusation hai ki Kalshi ke prediction markets basic gambling laws ko tod rahe hain. Yeh bas shuruat hai, Nevada mein bhi Kalshi ko sports, election wale contracts hataane pade the. Yahan tak ki Coinbase, jo Kalshi ka partner hai, usko bhi Nevada mein 'event-based contracts' band karne pade, kyunki state ne use 'sports pools' keh diya. Ab states keh rahe hain ki yeh sab federally regulated financial products nahi, balki illegal gambling hai.

Asal ladai is baat par hai ki yeh prediction markets kya hain – state laws wale illegal gambling ya federal CFTC ke neeche aane wale financial derivatives? CFTC (jiske head hain Michael Selig) ka kehna hai ki unka pura control hai aise contracts par, woh unhe regulated financial swaps maante hain. Lekin state regulators ko lagta hai ki yeh bina license wali gambling hai jisse unka tax revenue loss ho raha hai. Kalshi khud ko CFTC-registered batati hai. Baaki companies jaise Polymarket ne toh offshore operate karke baad mein CFTC approval liya hai. Yahan tak ki Coinbase ne khud Connecticut, Michigan, Illinois jaise states ke khilaaf case kiya hai, bolte hue ki yeh CFTC ke rules mein aata hai aur states innovation rok rahe hain.

Aur haan, is sab regulatory drama ke beech Coinbase ka stock price bhi hiltadulraha hai. Abhi around $161.14 chal raha hai, jo ki 52-week high $444.64 se kaafi neeche hai. Company ki market value lagbhag $47.55 billion hai. Crypto market ke upar-neeche hone aur revenue mein kuch dips ke bawajood, 2025 mein Coinbase ka trading volume $5.2 trillion raha, jo pichle saal se 156% zyada hai. Unhone crypto derivatives exchange Deribit ko acquire karke apna institutional revenue bhi badhaya hai. Analysts abhi bhi positive hain, 'Buy' rating aur median target $240.00 hai, kuch jaise Goldman Sachs ne $235 ka target diya hai. Lekin haal hi mein earnings miss hone aur net revenue mein kami dikhi hai, jo unke main business ke liye challenges batati hai.

Yeh badhti legal challenges prediction markets aur Coinbase jaise involved companies ke liye bade risks paida kar rahi hain. States ka kehna hai ki yeh contracts, especially sports wale, basically bina license ki gambling hain. Isse badi fines, business band hone aur reputation ko nuksan ho sakta hai. Gambling ki definition – jisme consideration, chance aur prize hota hai – ko yeh financial contracts challenge kar rahe hain. CFTC ka approach bhi limited hai aur future mein aur lawsuits la sakta hai. Congress mein 'Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act' jaisa bill bhi aa raha hai, jisse states ko aur power mil sakti hai. Yeh sab milkar ek complex situation bana raha hai, jahan federal approval aur state resistance ka clash Supreme Court tak ja sakta hai. Pehle Polymarket ko offshore operate karna pada tha, woh dikhata hai ki yeh risks real hain.

Aage kya hoga, yeh abhi clear nahi hai. Yeh federal-state jurisdiction ki fight prediction markets ka future decide karegi. CFTC ne ishara diya hai ki woh kuch event contracts ko allow kar sakte hain aur naye rules la sakte hain. Experts ko ek lambi legal battle ki ummeed hai, jiska decision shayad Supreme Court hi dega. Coinbase jaise companies ko is changing regulatory landscape mein cautiously aage badhna hoga.

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