Indian Bond Yields Mein Uchaal! State Borrowing Ki Vajah Se Market Mein Dhamaka?

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AuthorAnanya Iyer|Published at:
Indian Bond Yields Mein Uchaal! State Borrowing Ki Vajah Se Market Mein Dhamaka?
Overview

Yaar, bond market mein ek naya scene chal raha hai. State governments ne loan lena itna badha diya hai ki woh lagbhag Centre ke barabar aa gaye hain. Pichle 5 saal mein unki borrowing **13.8%** ke CAGR se badhi hai, jiske chalte bond ke bhav gir rahe hain (matlab yields badh rahe hain) aur RBI ki interest rate kam karne ki koshish bhi thodi mushkil ho gayi hai.

Bond Market Ka Pressure

Dekho, abhi 10-saal wale government bonds ke yields 6.6-6.7% ke aas paas ghoom rahe hain, jo lagbhag 10 mahine ke highest levels hain. Yeh sab isliye ho raha hai kyunki states itna zyada paisa borrow kar rahe hain ki market mein supply bahut badh gayi hai. RBI chahe jitna bhi liquidity provide kare, yeh supply pressure kam nahi ho raha aur is wajah se interest rates kam hone ka naam nahi le rahe. Iska seedha matlab hai ki businesses aur hum jaise logon ke liye loan lena mehnga ho raha hai.

States Ki Borrowing Ki Kahani

Asal mein, states ab apna paisa market se hi zyada borrow kar rahe hain. Centre ne pichle 5 saalon mein apni borrowing 3.5% CAGR se kam ki hai, lekin states ne isko 13.8% CAGR se badha diya hai! FY25-26 ke liye, states lagbhag ₹13 trillion se zyada SDLs ke through borrow karne ka plan bana rahe hain. Wahi, Centre ka plan ₹14.72 trillion gross borrowing ka hai. Jab dono ek hi pool se paisa utha rahe hain, toh competition badhta hai aur yields bhi upar jaate hain. GST ke baad revenue sharing aur kai states ki financial health bhi iska ek reason hai.

Centre vs States: Fiscal Health Ka Maamla

Ek taraf toh Centre apni fiscal deficit ko control mein rakhne ki koshish kar raha hai, FY26 ke liye target 4.4% of GDP rakha hai. Lekin states ka combined fiscal deficit FY25 mein lagbhag 3.2% of GDP ke aas paas hai. Toh, jab states zaroorat se zyada borrow karte hain toh woh Centre ki mehnat par paani pher sakte hain, kyunki sabka paisa toh wohi ek market se aa raha hai.

Aage Kya Hoga?

Abhi toh dono (Centre aur States) ka borrowing plan kaafi bada hai, toh bond market par pressure bana rehne wala hai. Dekhna hoga ki RBI kaise liquidity manage karti hai aur yields ko control mein rakhti hai. States ki financial decisions ab sirf unke liye nahi, balki poori economy ke liye important ho gayi hain, kyunki yeh direct sovereign borrowing costs aur RBI ki policies ko affect karti hain.

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