Whalesbook
Okay, toh hua kya hai ki February 20, 2026 ko US Supreme Court ne pehle wale tariffs ko invalid kar diya. Isse dollar par thoda pressure aaya tha. Lekin US administration ne turant hi Section 122 ke under 15% ka global tariff laga diya, jo initial 150 din ke liye valid hai. Analysts keh rahe hain ki India ka effective tariff rate shayad 11-13% ke aas paas rahega, jo pehle se kam hai. Par overall, trade policy mein ye lagatar changes investors ko pareshan kar rahe hain. USD/INR pair abhi 90.9926 ke aas paas hai aur 91 ka level test kar chuka hai. RBI bhi 90.70-90.80 ke level par intervene kar raha hai taaki jyada tezi ya mandi na ho.
Ye US trade policy ki uncertainty mid-2025 se hi emerging markets (EMs) ko affect kar rahi hai. Mazedaar baat yeh hai ki January 2026 mein EM equities ne 8.9% ka gain dikhaya hai, kyuki dollar thoda weak hua tha. Lekin India ke liye, pehle jab bhi tariffs lage hain, tab rupee gira hai. Toh ye situation mixed hai - ek taraf kam tariffs exports ke liye achhe ho sakte hain, lekin dusri taraf naye protectionist measures ka dar bhi hai.
Sabse bada tension kya hai? FPIs ka paisa lagataar nikalna. January 2026 mein toh record FPI selling hui, jab ₹1 trillion se zyada ka paisa Indian markets se bahar gaya. Ye trend February mein bhi jari hai. Foreign investors valuation ko lekar aur global uncertainties ke karan cautious hain. Sirf January ke pehle half mein hi ₹22,420 crore nikal gaye! Yeh paisa bahar jaane se rupee par seedha pressure aata hai. 91 per dollar ka level bahut important ban gaya hai, jahan RBI aksar intervene karta hai. Kuch experts keh rahe hain ki rupee 86-88 tak ja sakta hai saal ke end tak, lekin kuch 90-91 ke range mein hi rehne ki baat kar rahe hain. Goldman Sachs ka target toh 81.50 hai!
Aage kya hoga? Rupee ka future abhi US trade policy kaise develop hoti hai, global sentiment kaisa rehta hai, aur dollar ki demand kya hai, is par depend karega. Kuch logon ko lagg raha hai ki rupee manage karke thoda giraaya ja sakta hai (Trading Economics models ke according Q1 2026 ke end tak 90.57 aur 12 mahine mein 89.21). Par US government dwara naye protectionist measures ka dar abhi bhi bana hua hai. Agar dollar weak hota hai toh EM equities acha perform kar sakti hain, lekin FPIs jab tak paisa nikal rahe hain, woh policy clarity hi dekh rahe hain. India ki apni strengths hain jaise manageable CAD (Q3 2025 mein 1.3% tha, FY2026 mein 1.1-1.2% expect hai) aur strong services exports. Lekin global trade mein volatility aur US ki policy mein achanak changes rupee ko stable hone nahi de rahe hain.