Whalesbook
Lagataar Capital Flight Jaari
November, net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) outflows ka teesra lagataar mahina raha, jismein Indian shores se capital nikal kar $446 million tak pahunch gaya. Yeh sthir niklaav October mein $1.67 billion aur September mein $1.66 billion ke outflows ke baad aaya hai, jo August mein $215 million ke chhote inflow se bilkul alag hai. Yeh trend equity markets se ho rahe baahar jaane ko aur badha raha hai, jahan Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) ne 2026 mein ab tak $3.36 billion withdraw kiye hain, jo 2025 mein dekhe gaye $18.91 billion ke exit mein aur jud gaya hai.
RBI Ne Trade Uncertainty Aur Currency Weakness Ka Hawala Diya
Reserve Bank of India ne videshi nivesh mein kami ka karan India-US trade deal ke aas-paas ki anishchitata aur rupee ki kamzori ko bataya. Gross basis par, November mein India mein FDI $6.41 billion tak pahuncha, jo October se 2% kam hai lekin November 2024 ki tulna mein 22% zyada hai. Japan, Singapore aur US ne milkar in gross inflows ka teen-chauthai hissa banaya. Financial services sector sabse bada praptakarta raha, jismein lagbhag 75% total ka aagman hua, iske baad manufacturing aur retail trade ka number aaya.
Repatriations Se Outflow Ki Figures Badhi
Bhale hi Indian companies dwara outward FDI November mein October ki tulna mein lagbhag adha hokar $1.51 billion ho gaya ho, videshi niveshakon ne $5.34 billion ka badi matra mein repatriation kiya. Yeh repatriation figure December 2024 ke baad sabse zyada record kiya gaya tha. Indian firms se outward FDI ka 70% se zyada hissa manufacturing, financial, insurance aur business services sectors ki taraf gaya. Outward investments aur videshi niveshakon ke exits ke milkar bane dabav ne rupee par kafi asar dala hai.
Rupee Ki Record Giraavat Aur Economic Asar
Rupee ki tezi se girawat December ki shuruaat mein dollar ke saamne 90 aur 91 ke paar pahunch gayee, aur ek naye record low par aa gayee. Halanki RBI ke market interventions ne kuch rahat di hai, lekin currency is hafte tezi se kamzor hui, budhwar ko 91.71 par band hui. Bank of Baroda ke Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis ne bataya ki depreciating rupee maujuda US tariffs ke beech export ko fayda deta hai lekin yeh bhi chetavani di ki lagataar depreciation corporate uncertainty ko badhata hai. "Isse zyada savdhani dikhayi ja rahi hai," unhone kaha.
Badalti Global Investment Dynamics
2025-26 ke aath mahine ke fiscal year ke liye, Indian companies dwara videshi nivesh aur videshi repatriations milakar $59.1 billion ho gaye hain, jo pichhle fiscal year ki isi avadhi mein $55 billion se zyada hai. April-November 2025 ke liye Net FDI inflows $5.63 billion rahe, jo 2024-25 mein poore saal mein aaye $959 million se bilkul alag hai. Is avadhi ke liye Gross FDI inflows $64.73 billion rahe, jo poore pichhle fiscal year mein record kiye gaye $80.62 billion se kam hain. Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran ne developd deshon mein badhti interest rates aur localized supply chains ke liye global push ka zikr kiya, jiski wajah se India ko capital ke liye sakhti se pratispardha karni pad rahi hai. Unhone aage kaha ki Indian companies un markets ko seedhe serve karne ke liye videsh mein nivesh badha rahi hain, aur is baat par zor diya ki India ko FDI aur global supply chain companies ko attract karne ke liye 'apna game' sudharna hoga.