Whalesbook
Achanak Rupee Girne Ka Kya Reason Hai? (The Real Deal)
Asal mein, state-run oil refiners ne ek bahut important foreign exchange credit line ka use karna kam kar diya hai, jisse rupee ki stability ko lekar tension badh gayi hai. Currency seedha apne record low ₹95.21 ke paas fisal gayi hai. Pichhle baar thodi recovery hui thi, ₹92.50 ke aas paas, woh bhi RBI ke kuch steps ke baad, par ab phir se pressure aa gaya hai.
Refiners Kyun Chintit Hain? (The Hesitation)
Ye refiners oil import ke liye sabse bade dollar kharidne wale hain, aur monthly average $12 billion se $13 billion tak ka import hota hai. Lekin ab woh State Bank of India (SBI) dwara di gayi special FX credit facility ko use karne mein hesitate kar rahe hain. Unhein sabse bada darr ye hai ki agar rupee aur kamzor hua, toh future mein repayment ka cost bahut zyada badh jayega.
Caution Wala Approach (Market Strategy)
Do sources ne confirm kiya hai ki refiners is facility ko "cost-effective" nahi maan rahe agar rupee ke aur girne ki sambhavna hai. Ek refiner is facility ka sirf thoda hissa hi use kar raha hai, aur baaki ka dollar spot market se kharid raha hai. Doosri company short-term market borrowings par zyada depend kar rahi hai aur credit line ka use bhi limit mein rakha hai. Crude oil ka current high price bhi situation ko tough bana raha hai, Brent crude $112.9 per barrel ke aas paas hai, jisne credit facility ka attraction aur kam kar diya hai.
Overall Rupee Par Pressure Kyun Hai? (Broader View)
Pichhle sirf 8 trading sessions mein rupee lagbhag 2% gir gaya hai. Ye trend Asia ke dusre oil importing countries jaise Thailand aur Philippines mein bhi dikh raha hai. Refiners ki spot market mein dollar demand ek reason hai, par RBI ke kareebiyon ka kehna hai ki yeh akela karan nahi hai. Ab sabki nazar RBI ke agle steps par hai aur ye bhi ki geopolitical events oil prices ko kaise affect karte hain.