Whalesbook
Rajasthan mein June tak **154%** zyada baarish hui hai, khaas kar poorvi ilaakon mein **207%** surplus. Ye investors ke liye badi chinta ka vishay hai kyunki Kharif ki fasal aur state ka infrastructure dono risk mein hain.
Kya Hua?
Rajasthan mein monsoon ne shuruat mein hi dhamaal macha diya hai. Ab tak state mein average se 154% zyada baarish ho chuki hai, jo ki normal se bahut zyada hai. Eastern Rajasthan mein toh ye surplus 207% tak pahunch gaya hai! June 1 se June 9 tak, 19.1 mm baarish hui hai jabki normal 7.5 mm hoti hai. Yeh sab badalti climate patterns aur western disturbances ki wajah se ho raha hai, jaisa ki pichle saalon mein bhi dekha gaya hai.
Investors ke liye Kyun Important Hai?
Rajasthan ki economy ka 26% se zyada hissa agriculture se aata hai. Bajra, sarson, guar, aur kai tarah ke oilseeds yahan khoob ugte hain. Baarish in fasalon ke liye zaroori toh hai, par sahi samay par aur sahi maatra mein hona bahut matter karta hai. Zyada baarish Kharif ki fasal ki sowing mein problem kar sakti hai, paani bhar sakta hai aur seeds kharab ho sakte hain. Jo investors rural demand aur commodity prices par nazar rakhte hain, unhe yahan ki kheti par dhyaan dena chahiye. Pehle bhi aise excess rain se dalhan aur moti anaj ki kheti par asar pada hai, jisse local supply chain aur farmers ki income affect hui hai.
Infrastructure aur Supply Chain Risks
Ek anup jal (arid) rajya mein itni bhari baarish wahan ke infrastructure ke liye bhi challenge paida karti hai. Achanak se bahut zyada paani aane par drainage systems fail ho jaate hain, roads par paani bhar jaata hai aur transportation mein dikkat aati hai. Jo companies yahan infrastructure aur logistics mein hain, unke liye baar-baar aise mausam ki wajah se maintenance cost badh sakti hai aur kaam ruk sakta hai. Agar aisa chalta raha toh regional infrastructure assets ka risk profile badh sakta hai.
Historical Patterns Mein Badlav
Yeh surplus ek bade trend ka hissa hai jahan mausam ke patterns badal rahe hain. Data bata raha hai ki Rajasthan ke sabse zyada baarish wale 10 monsoon seasons mein se 4 2019 ke baad aaye hain. Pichle saal (2025) 64% ka surplus tha, jo 1901 ke baad doosra sabse zyada tha. Iska matlab hai ki state mein ab zyada baarish hone ki sambhavna hai. Is badlav se Thar Desert ke ecosystem par bhi asar padega aur climate-resilient water management aur farming strategies ki zaroorat hai.
Investors Ko Kya Track Karna Chahiye?
Investors ko aane wale mahino mein kuch cheezon par nazar rakhni chahiye. Sabse pehle, Kharif ki sowing kaise ho rahi hai, isse bajra aur sarson jaise main commodities ki kheti aur prices ka pata chalega. Doosra, agar infrastructure ko nuksaan pahunchne ki koi official report aati hai ya state koi relief package deta hai, toh yeh economic pressure ka signal ho sakta hai. Aur teesra, India Meteorological Department se mausam ke update lete rehna zaroori hai, kyunki yeh rajya ki rural economy ko affect kar raha hai.