Whalesbook
RBI ne bhaiyo, kuch temporary steps uthaye hain taaki Indian Rupee par jo bahar international market mein speculation ho rahi hai, us par lagaam lagai jaasake. Governor Sanjay Malhotra ne clear kiya ki recently jo NDFs (non-deliverable forwards) par restrictions lagai gayi hain, woh isliye hain taaki traders price differences ka galat fayda na utha sakein aur rupee par artificial pressure na bane.
Socho, March mein hamara rupee US dollar ke saamne 95 ke historic lows tak pahunch gaya tha. Iska ek bada reason tha global conflicts aur oil prices ka badhna. Lekin, RBI ki intervention ke baad se, rupee thoda recover hua hai aur 92.58 ke aas paas trade kar raha tha, jo March ke low se better hai.
Ab RBI ki khud ki forecast hai FY27 ke liye ki rupee 94 INR/USD ke aas paas rahega, agar crude oil $85 per barrel par raha. Par current situation mein Brent crude $90 ke upar chal raha hai, toh ye forecast thoda ambitious lag raha hai.
Isi beech, Monetary Policy Committee ne apna benchmark repo rate 5.25% par hi rakha hai, yeh dusri baar hua hai jab rate change nahi hua. Iska matlab hai ki RBI abhi neutral policy stance par hai aur price stability par focus kar raha hai. FY27 ke liye inflation projection 4.6% hai.
RBI apne current flexibility ka use kar raha hai, low inflation levels ki wajah se, taaki energy price volatility aur geopolitical uncertainty ke shocks ko absorb kar sake. Iska matlab hai ki interest rate cuts mein abhi aur der ho sakti hai.
Waise, emerging market currencies mein ye rupee ki volatility koi nayi baat nahi hai. Dollar mazboot ho raha hai aur paisa bahar ja raha hai. RBI ka ye NDF market mein direct intervention ek smart move hai, jisse currency volatility control ho jaati hai aur forex reserves bhi zyada drain nahi hote.
History dekho toh jab bhi economic stress aata hai, Indian Rupee gira hai, aur kabhi kabhi Asia ki sabse worst performing currency bhi raha hai. High crude oil prices aur rupee ka girna toh ancient connection hai. West Asia mein conflicts se India ka import bill, trade deficit aur inflation par risk badh jata hai.
Kuch analysts keh rahe hain ki ye temporary NDF curbs kitne effective rahenge, pata nahi. Reports aisi hain ki RBI ke intervention se pehle NDF market mein kaafi arbitrage ho raha tha. Agar geopolitical situation aur kharab hui toh crude oil prices badhte rahenge, current account deficit badhega aur imported inflation ka risk badhega, jisse RBI aur government ke liye policy banana mushkil ho jayega.
Aur haan, Moody's Ratings aur EY jaise institutions ne toh India ki GDP growth forecasts ko bhi already kam kar diya hai.
RBI ka approach abhi calculated hai, data dekh kar chalenge, isliye interest rates steady rehne ki poori sambhavna hai. Market liquidity aur bahari shocks par nazar rakhi jayegi. Ye NDF curbs rupee ko stabilize karne mein madad karenge, par agar global pressure raha ya domestic slowdown aaya, toh currency ka path phir bhi challenging ho sakta hai. Finally, rupee kahan jayega, yeh sab geopolitical tensions kam hone aur global energy prices stable hone par depend karega.