Whalesbook
Toh bhai, pehle SDL market mein badi gadbad thi. Alag alag time pe loans hote the, jisse liquidity kam thi aur price sahi se pata nahi chalta tha.
Isi ko theek karne ke liye RBI ka yeh naya plan, BIS. Ab loans standard maturity bands mein issue honge, jisse bade aur liquid benchmark securities banenge. Isse price discovery bhi achhi hogi aur investors ko bhi clear picture milega.
Market mein ek aur surprise hai. FY27 ke Q1 mein total SDL borrowing ₹2.54 trillion plan kiya gaya hai, jo kuch experts ke ₹2.75 trillion se ₹3.0 trillion ke forecast se kam hai. Plus, pichhle saal FY26 mein states ne kaafi lambe time ke liye loans liye the, jiska asar abhi bhi market par hai. Isi wajah se, immediate mein yields (yaani interest rate) mein bada drop nahi dikhega, bhale hi BIS laagu ho jaye.
Pilot mein 9 states shamil hain: Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Telangana, aur Uttar Pradesh. Yeh states milkar ₹1.54 trillion is structured tareeke se borrow karengi, jabki baaki ka ₹1.01 trillion normal tareeke se aayega.
Pehle SDL market mein maturity ka itna variety tha ki liquidity kam ho jaati thi. FY26 mein toh Maharashtra aur Telangana jaise states ne maturity ko bahut lamba kar diya, jo investors ko pasand nahi aata jo short-term instruments prefer karte hain. Ab BIS se predictable instruments banenge jo zyada trade honge.
Aajkal, 10-year Government Securities (G-Secs) lagbhag 6.80% yield de rahe hain, aur comparable SDLs isse 10 se 30 basis points upar trade kar rahe hain. Kamzor fiscal profile wale states ke liye yeh spread aur zyada hota hai. BIS ka aim in spreads ko kam karna hai.
Abhi yeh BIS ek positive step hai, par iska asar dheere dheere hi hoga. Jab tak SDLs ki supply kam nahi hoti ya states apne borrowing ko manage nahi karte, tab tak yields mein turant bada drop nahi dikhega. Kuch states jaise Kerala aur Andhra Pradesh ki fiscal health par bhi sawaal hain, jisse unka borrowing cost zyada reh sakta hai.
Lekin RBI isko badhava de raha hai, aur ummeed hai ki zyada states isko adopt karenge. Goal hai ki states ki borrowing mein discipline aaye, investors ka confidence badhe, aur state bond market develop ho.