Whalesbook
Jang ne Machaya Economic Maahol:
Latest news ke hisaab se, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran ne bataya hai ki West Asia ki jang India ki growth, inflation, government finances aur trade ko kaise affect kar sakti hai. Main toh ye char raaston se ho raha hai: crude oil, gas aur fertilizer ki supply disturb ho rahi hai; import ka kharcha badh raha hai; shipping costs up ho gayi hai; aur Gulf countries mein kaam karne wale Indians se jo paisa ghar aata hai, woh bhi kam ho sakta hai.
Socho, yeh sab tab ho raha hai jab RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra ek critical point par hain. Abhi tak toh sab set tha, India ek 'goldilocks period' mein tha, jahan inflation sirf 2.2% tha aur GDP growth bhi zabardast 8% thi H1 FY25 mein. Isse liquidity bhi achhi thi aur lending rates bhi control mein thi.
Rupee Dala Patakha, RBI Ne Kiya Intervention:
Currency par immediate impact dikh gaya. March mein Rupee 4% se zyada gira aur Friday ko toh dollar ke saamne 94.85 ke all-time low ko choo gaya, woh bhi RBI ki intermittent intervention ke bawajood. Aur ek scary baat ye hai ki foreign currency assets, jo reserves ka bada hissa hain, February 27 se ab tak $16 billion gir gaye hain.
RBI ne spot aur forward markets dono mein full-on action liya hai. Ab ek naya rule aaya hai jismein rupee transactions mein net open position ko $100 million par cap kar diya gaya hai. Isse banks ko apne bade dollar positions unwind karne padenge, jisse short-term support milega. Lekin analysts keh rahe hain ki agar conflict badha, toh dollar aur upar ja sakta hai.
Geopolitical Risks Ne Badhaya Payments Pressure:
Country ki overall balance of payments par bhi pressure badhne wala hai. April-December mein deficit $30.8 billion tha, aur current account deficit 1.1% of GDP tha. IDFC Bank ki chief economist Gaura Sen Gupta ne kaha ki rising geopolitical risks ki wajah se FY26 ke Q4 mein bhi balance of payments deficit mein raha hai. Iska ek reason ye bhi hai ki foreign portfolio investments ke through desh se zyada paisa bahar ja raha hai.
RBI Ki Policy Balancing Act:
2022 mein Ukraine war ke baad jo situation bani thi, usse alag hai abhi. Tab policy repo rate 4% tha, abhi 5.25% hai, toh Monetary Policy Committee ko thoda room mil raha hai war ke impact ko assess karne ke liye. Bank of Baroda ke chief economist Madan Sabnavis ne kaha ki filhaal rate cuts toh nahi lag rahe, kyunki inflation aur El Nino ke potential effects zyada important hain. Nageswaran ne add kiya ki agar demand cool down hui, toh RBI ka dilemma aasan ho jayega aur woh inflation ko supply issue maan sakte hain. Warna, RBI ko import costs badhne ke wider impact ko tackle karna padega.