Whalesbook
Inflation ki wajah se RBI ka policy shift!
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ab apni economic forecasts ko revise kar raha hai. Aisa lag raha hai ki August tak interest rates badh sakte hain. Ye change isliye ho raha hai kyunki crude oil ke badhte prices aur kamzor padte Rupee ki wajah se inflation ka risk badh gaya hai. RBI chahta hai ki sab kuch stable rahe.
Market Pressure mein RBI Policy
Indian Rupee ne US Dollar ke saamne record low bana liya hai, ab 96.8100 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai. Aur Brent crude oil prices $110 per barrel se upar chal rahe hain. Jabki RBI ki monetary policy committee ko lag raha tha ki oil prices average $85 per barrel rahenge. Agar oil prices $95-$100 ke aas paas bane rahe toh inflation control se bahar ho sakta hai. Isse August mein rate hike ke chances badh jayenge, jo pehle 2026 ki teesri quarter mein expect kiya ja raha tha. June ki meeting mein rates shayad same rahenge, but agar oil $100 ke upar raha toh August ek important decision point hoga. April 2026 mein India ki inflation rate 3.48% thi.
Inflation hi RBI ka main focus
Union Bank of India ki Chief Economic Advisor, Kanika Pasricha ne kaha ki RBI ka decision sirf currency depreciation par nahi, balki inflation par depend karega. RBI kaafi cautious hai kyunki West Asia mein geopolitical tensions aur global oil supply ko lekar uncertainty hai. Thoda Rupee girne se export ko help mil sakti hai, but agar zyada gira toh market ka confidence kam ho sakta hai, jise manage karne ke liye RBI ko intervene karna padega.
Govt kar sakti hai Dollar Demand kam
Agar Rupee par pressure bana raha, toh Indian government dollar demand kam karne ke liye kuch kadam utha sakti hai. Jaise ki fuel prices adjust karna, non-essential imports par controls tight karna, ya overseas dollar outflows ko manage karna. Global bond yields bhi badh sakte hain kyunki inflation aur tightening financial conditions ko lekar chinta hai. Agar oil prices aise hi badhte rahe toh global central banks bhi hawkish policies apna sakte hain, jiska impact India ke interest rates aur currency par padega.
Stagflation ki chinta policy ko restrict kar rahi hai
DBS Group Research ke economists ne 2026 ke baaki hisse ke liye USD/INR forecast ko 95-100 kar diya hai. Woh 'stagflation-lite' scenario ki warning de rahe hain. Jab inflation badh raha ho aur growth kam ho rahi ho, toh RBI aur fiscal authorities ke paas policy options kam ho jaate hain. UN ne 2026 ke liye India ki GDP growth forecast ko kam karke 6.4% kar diya hai, kyunki higher energy import costs aur tighter financial conditions ka impact pad raha hai. Current repo rate 5.25% hai, jo December 2025 se change nahi hua hai.