Whalesbook
RBI ka strategy shift: Dollar khareedna shuru!
Scene kuch aisa hai ki RBI abtak rupee ko support karne ke liye dollars bech raha tha, lekin ab uski policy badal gayi hai. Pichhle 7 mahino se dollar bechne ke baad, RBI ne February 2026 mein $7.409 billion ke dollars khareede hain. January 2026 mein bhi $2.526 billion ki khareedari hui thi. Yeh dikhata hai ki RBI ko rupee ke girne ki kaafi chinta hai aur woh reserves kam karne ke bajaye ab khud dollar pakad raha hai.
Forex market mein naya rule: Speculation par cap!
Iske alawa, RBI ne 27 March 2026 se authorized dealers ke liye Rupee (NOP-INR) mein Net Open Position par rozana $100 million ka limit laga diya hai. Iska matlab hai ki bankon dwara speculative trading ab control mein rahegi. Yeh rule 10 April 2026 se implement hoga aur onshore aur offshore markets ke beech trading ko regulate karega.
Rupee par geopolitical tensions aur crude oil ka pressure
Yeh saare kadam aise time par uthaye ja rahe hain jab West Asia mein badhti hui tensions aur crude oil ke badhte hue prices Indian Rupee par pressure bana rahe hain. Brent crude February 2026 mein $120 per barrel ke paar chala gaya tha, jis se India ka import bill badh gaya hai. India apni lagbhag 85% crude oil ki requirement import karta hai, aur Stait of Hormuz se hone wali supply disruptions ka khatra hamesha bana rehta hai.
In sabhi reasons ki wajah se, Indian Rupee pichhle kuch samay mein gira hai. Is conflict ke shuru hone ke baad se rupee 4% se zyada gir gaya hai aur jo fiscal year March 2026 mein khatm hua, usmein lagbhag 10% tak gira hai. April 23, 2026 tak, USD/INR rate 93.9643 ke aas paas tha. Analysts ka kehna hai ki oil prices aur foreign investors ke paisa nikalne ki wajah se rupee aur gir sakta hai, shayad 94-95 tak jaa sakta hai, aur kuch toh 2026 ke end tak 102.75 ka bhi andaza laga rahe hain.
Future outlook aur risks
RBI ke yeh steps rupee ko stabilize karne mein help kar sakte hain, lekin asli pressure abhi bhi bana hua hai. Geopolitical situation aur oil prices ka game rupe ke future ko decide karega. Agar yeh tensions badhi, toh oil prices aur upar jayenge aur rupee par aur pressure aayega. RBI ki taraf se yeh $100 million ka NOP-INR cap temporary hai aur market stable hote hi hat sakta hai.
Sabse badi baat yeh hai ki RBI ab exchange rate ke kisi specific level ko defend karne ke bajaye, market mein extreme volatility ko control karne par focus karega. India ki economy strong hai, lekin global risks aur trade tensions emerging market currencies ke liye challenge bane hue hain. US Dollar Index (DXY) bhi 98.605 ke aas paas strong bana hua hai, jo global uncertainty mein safe haven ki tarah behave kar raha hai.