Whalesbook
Powell Ka Fed Mein Rukna: Independence Ki Ladai
Sunne mein aaya hai ki Jerome Powell Fed ke Governor ke roop mein kaam jari rakhenge, bhale hi unki Chair ki term May 2026 mein khatm ho rahi hai. Yeh decision unhone isliye liya hai kyunki unhe lagta hai ki Fed ki 'independence' par bahut zyada 'political attacks' ho rahe hain. Woh jab tak yeh 'investigations' poori tarah se clear nahi ho jaati, tab tak rukne wale hain. Fed ki monetary policy bina kisi political pressure ke ho, yeh bahut zaroori hai, aur Powell yeh सुनिश्चित karna chahte hain.
Rate Hold Par Record Dissent, Inflation Ki Chinta
April 2026 ki meeting mein, FOMC ne benchmark interest rate ko 3.50%-3.75% par hi rakha hai, lagatar teesri baar. Lekin is baar meeting mein sabse zyada matbhed dikha! 4 officials ne is decision se sahmat nahi hain. Teen log future rate cuts ko lekar jo guidance di gayi thi, usse disagree karte hain, aur ek Governor, Stephen Miran, toh turant rate cut chahte the. Itna bada dissent October 1992 ke baad pehli baar dekha gaya hai. Sabse badi wajah hai current inflation, jo March 2026 tak 3.3% hai, ismein energy prices ka 12.5% jump bhi shaamil hai. Global tension aur Middle East ki wajah se energy prices aur badh sakti hain.
Kevin Warsh Banenge Naye Fed Chair?
Senate Banking Committee ne Kevin Warsh ko naye Fed Chair banane ki nomination ko approve kar diya hai, aur full Senate se bhi jaldi approval milne ki umeed hai. Warsh agar chair bane, toh Fed mein 'regime change' ho sakta hai. Woh economic models aur Fed ke communication mein badlav la sakte hain. Pahle woh rates ko lekar strict the, lekin ab woh rate cuts ko support kar rahe hain. Unka kehna hai ki current inflation ke liye tariffs aur government spending blame hain. Market mein unki nomination ko lekar mixed reactions hain, kuch log expecting hain ki policy easy hogi, toh kuch worried hain ki woh administration ke pressure mein aa sakte hain.
Fed Independence Par Sawal Aur Policy Ka Future
Bhale hi US Attorney's office ne Powell par jo investigation chal rahi thi, use band kar diya ho, lekin Fed ki independence ko lekar sawaal abhi bhi hain. FOMC ke andar itna bada matbhed future mein policy errors ya paralysis ka risk badha sakta hai, khas kar jab naya leadership aa raha ho. Warsh ka shifting stance policy direction ko lekar uncertainty paida karta hai. Fed ko ab price stability aur employment maintain karna hai, saath hi apni independence bhi bachani hai. Treasury yields badh gaye hain, kyunki market ab 2026 mein koi rate cut nahi dekh raha, aur kuch log toh 2027 mein rate hike ki bhi baat kar rahe hain.