Whalesbook
Oil Price Ne Di Thodi Raahat, Lekin IMF Ki Chinta Abhi Bhi Hai
Wednesday ko bhaiyo, global markets mein ek ajeeb sa scene tha. Ek taraf, Wall Street ne toh jabardast performance dikhaya, lekin Asian markets thoda peeche rah gaye. Iska ek bada reason hai crude oil prices ka thoda neeche aana. Reports aa rahi hain ki US aur Iran ke beech dobara baat cheet ho sakti hai, jiske baad Brent crude ab $98 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai aur WTI $89.30 ke kareeb. Isse markets mein thodi buoyancy aayi aur Wall Street mein S&P 500 1.2% badhkar 6,967.38 par aur Nasdaq 2% jump karke 23,639.08 par close hua. Lekin ye relief temporary hai kyuki US military abhi bhi Iranian ports ko block kar rahi hai, toh situation stable nahi hai. Aur haan, kuch time pehle hi Brent $119 cross kar gaya tha, toh prices abhi bhi volatile hain.
IMF Ki Nayi Forecast: Mehngai Badhegi, Growth Ghategi!
Oil price ka ye temporary relief tabhi tak hai jab tak IMF ka latest outlook kuch aur hi keh raha hai. IMF ne 2026 ke liye global growth ka estimate kam kar diya hai, ab 3.1% (pehla 3.3% tha). Aur mehngai? Woh badhne wali hai, 2026 tak 4.4% ho sakti hai (2025 mein 4.1% thi). Emerging markets ke liye bhi growth projection kam karke 3.9% kar diya hai.
Asian Markets Ka Unpredictable Move
Ye sab chinta Asian markets mein bhi dikhi. Japan ka Nikkei 0.5% badha, lekin South Korea ka Kospi 0.2% gira, Australia ka ASX 200 0.9% neeche, aur Hong Kong ka Hang Seng 1.3% gir gaya. Shanghai mein bas 0.1% ka slight rise tha aur Taiwan ke Taiex mein 1.1%.
Risk Factor: Aur Bura Hua Toh Kya Hoga?
IMF ka kehna hai ki agar zyada instability badhti hai, toh global growth 2.5% tak gir sakti hai aur mehngai 5.4% tak pahunch sakti hai. Agar Strait of Hormuz mein koi badi gadbad hui, toh oil prices wapas $100 ke paar ja sakti hain. Citi ne toh $110 ka bhi warning diya hai!
Aage Kya Dekhna Hai?
Market abhi US dollar aur Treasury yields (jo 4.25% ke aas paas hain) ko bhi dekh rahi hai. Overall, economy ek mushkil phase se guzar rahi hai. Halanki kuch log ceasefire extension ki ummeed kar rahe hain, par risk toh hai hi. So, dhyan se investment karna hoga.