Whalesbook
Market ka big shift: Equities down, safe havens up!
Morgan Stanley ke experts ne bola ki ab duniya bhar ke stocks mein utna risk nahi lenge jitna pehle le rahe the. Unhone equities ko 'overweight' se 'equal weight' par shift kar diya hai. Iska reason hai Middle East mein chal raha conflict aur isse oil prices ka $115 per barrel cross karna. Unka warning hai ki agar crude $150 se $180 tak pahunch gaya, toh global stock market valuation mein 25% tak ki girawat aa sakti hai.
US Banega Naya Safe Haven?
Ab MS ko US markets zyada pasand aa rahe hain, especially US Treasuries. Unka kehna hai ki US mein earnings growth prospects better hain. Flight to safety ke chalte US 10-year Treasury note ka yield 4.394% tak pahunch gaya hai. Jabki S&P 500 ka P/E ratio 25.16 se 28.58 ke beech mein hai, jo kuch measures ke hisab se thoda expensive lag raha hai.
Japan stocks ko bhi risk?
Japan ke liye bhi situation tricky lag rahi hai. Morgan Stanley ko lagta hai ki supply chain problems aur global recession ka impact Japan par pad sakta hai, especially agar Strait of Hormuz jaise crucial routes band ho gaye. Isliye woh Japanese equities se bhi capital hatane ko keh rahe hain.
Recession aur Inflation ki chinta badhi!
Yeh geopolitical situation recession aur inflation dono ko fuel kar sakti hai. Agar oil prices $100-$120 se upar rehte hain, toh consumer spending kam ho jayegi aur central banks ke liye decision lena mushkil ho jayega. Kuch analysts US recession ka 30% se 40% chance bata rahe hain, Moody's model toh lagbhag 50% tak ka odds dikha raha hai agar oil price badhti rahi. Market mein volatility dikh rahi hai, VIX index 30 ke upar chala gaya hai. Is situation ko dekh kar hi JPMorgan ne S&P 500 ka year-end target 7,500 se 7,200 kar diya hai.