Whalesbook
So, kya chal raha hai? Iran ne global market ki saans hi rok di hai, Strait of Hormuz ko block karke. Ye route itna important hai ki duniya ka around 20% oil supply yahi se hota hai. Pehle Brent crude $60-$70 ke aas paas tha, ab seedha $100 cross karke $120 ke paas pahunch gaya hai! Aaj, April 24, 2026 ko, yeh $105.05 ke level par trade ho raha tha. Experts keh rahe hain ki 1970s ke oil crisis ke baad se ab tak ki yeh sabse badi energy supply disruption hai. Pichle time mein bhi jab aisi chizen hui hain, toh Brent $119 se lekar $150 tak bhi pahunch gaya tha.
Ab India ka kya? Yaar, hum toh 85% apna crude oil bahar se mangate hain, aur iska ek bada hissa pehle Hormuz se hi aata tha. Chahe humne sources diversify kiye hon, par asal mein toh hum abhi bhi energy ke liye bahari countries par hi depend karte hain. Is sabse apni import cost badhegi, sarkaar ke kharche badhenge aur mehngai bhi badhegi. Sirf tel nahi, fertilizers bhi affected hain jinka one-third export Hormuz se hota hai, toh food security par bhi risk hai.
Duniya bhar ki supply chains toh waise hi pressure mein thi, ab aur zyaada ho gayi hai. March 2026 mein Global Supply Chain Pressure Index 0.68 par pahunch gaya hai, jo ki 3 saal ka highest hai. Transportation cost badh rahi hai, materials mil nahi rahe aur companies stock pile kar rahi hain shipping aur energy price shocks ke dar se. Asia aur Europe mein energy import karne wale deshon ki toh waat lag gayi hai freight aur insurance costs se.
Ye sirf temporary problem nahi hai, balki global trade ki ek structural weakness dikha raha hai. Iran strategic tarike se pressure bana raha hai. Is geopolitical tension aur badalti trade rules se uncertainty badhti ja rahi hai. Agar ye conflict chalta raha, toh oil ke daam $100 par hi 2026 aur 2027 tak reh sakte hain, aur agar situation lamba chala toh ye $180-$200 tak bhi ja sakta hai. Isse inflation badhegi aur global trade bhi slow ho sakta hai.
Analysts expect kar rahe hain ki oil prices high hi rahenge. US EIA forecast kar raha hai ki 2027 mein Brent crude average $76 per barrel rahega, jo pehle ke estimate se $23 zyada hai. Thoda diplomacy ka hope hai par risk abhi bhi hai, toh volatility rahegi. India jaise countries ko long-term mein demand kam karni padegi aur sources ko diversify karna padega.