C. Rangarajan aur K.R. Shanmugam ki nayi research ne sabko shock kar diya hai. Repo rate se zyada 'Money Supply' (M3) inflation ko predict karta hai. Investors ke liye liquidity par nazar rakhna ab pehle se zyada zaroori hai.
RBI ka Repo Rate toh bas ek trailer hai!
Zyadatar log inflation ko track karne ke liye RBI ke repo rate par aankh band karke bharosa karte hain. Lekin, C. Rangarajan aur K.R. Shanmugam ki study ne ek naya angle diya hai. Unka kehna hai ki economy mein ghum raha paisa (Money Supply/M3) inflation ka zyada accurate indicator hai, sirf interest rates nahi.
M3 vs Repo Rate: Asal khel kya hai?
1994 se 2024 ke data ko analyze karne ke baad ye saaf hua hai ki jab system mein paisa (liquidity) bina production badhe increase hota hai, toh inflation badhta hi badhta hai, chahe repo rate kuch bhi ho. CPI (Consumer Price Index) ka seedha connection M3 growth se hai.
Market par iska asar?
Agar central bank ab liquidity control par zyada focus karega, toh humein OMO (Open Market Operations) ka use zyada dekhne ko mil sakta hai. Iska matlab hai ki RBI market se extra cash khinchega taaki mehangai par lagaam lage.
Investors ke liye lesson:
Inflation badhne se companies ke margins par dabadav aata hai kyunki raw material mehanga ho jata hai. Sirf repo rate dekh kar trade lene wale investors ko ab 'system liquidity' (banking system mein daily surplus ya deficit) par bhi nazar rakhni hogi. Agar aapko market ke agle move ko samajhna hai, toh repo rate aur liquidity dono ke balance ko track karna hoga.