India mein wholesale aur retail inflation ka difference pichle 10 saalo mein sabse zyada ho gaya hai. Ab tak companies apni jeb se kharcha jhel rahi thi, lekin ye game jaldi khatam ho sakta hai.
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) aur Consumer Price Index (CPI) ke beech ka gap ab historical level par pahunch chuka hai. Jahan wholesale inflation 10% ke kareeb bhag rahi hai, wahi retail inflation abhi 5% ke neeche bani hui hai. Iska seedha matlab ye hai ki manufacturers abhi saara input cost khud absorb kar rahe hain taaki market share bacha rahe.
Kya companies kab tak ye jhelengi?
Companies pichle kai mahino se apne products ke daam nahi badha rahi thi taaki sales bani rahe, lekin ab margins par bohot pressure aa gaya hai. Crude oil ke badhte daam aur supply chain ki dikkaton ne companies ka matha kharab kar diya hai. Ab ye strategy tootne ki kagaar par hai.
Investors ke liye warning sign!
Sabse bada risk ye hai ki agar companies ne apni profitability bachane ke liye product ke daam badha diye, toh retail inflation seedha jump maregi. Aur agar aisa hua, toh RBI ke liye interest rates kam rakhna mushkil ho jayega, jiska matlab hai ki companies ka debt cost badh sakta hai.
Kin sectors par nazar rakhein?
FMCG, Auto aur Manufacturing sector sabse zyada risky zone mein hain. Aane wale quarterly results mein check karein ki kaunsi company bina sales giraye prices badha pa rahi hai (pricing power). Agar margin gir raha hai, toh samajh jaiye ki wo company cost pressure mein hai.