Whalesbook
Toh hua yun ki fiscal year 2025-26 mein India ka trade deficit $119.3 billion tak pahunch gaya hai. Ye pichle saal ke $94.6 billion se 26% zyada hai. Aisa lagbhag 11 saalon mein dusra sabse bada gap hai. Iska sabse bada reason hai imports ka 6.4% badhna, jo kul $979.4 billion ho gaye. Isme khaas kar gold aur silver ki badhti hui prices aur kharidari ne badi entry maari hai. Bas gold aur silver ki import bill mein hi kaafi paisa gaya.
Ab exports ki baat karein toh, import badhne ke bawajood, India ke exports bhi 4.22% badhe hain. Merchandise exports 1% badhkar $441.78 billion ho gaye. Electronic goods, engineering goods, meat, dairy, marine products jaise sectors ne achha perform kiya. China aur Spain ko hamare exports kaafi badhe hain.
Par bhai, West Asia mein jo tensions chal rahi hain, usne bhi trade par kaafi asar dala hai March 2026 mein. Exports 57.95% tak kam ho gaye region mein, aur imports bhi 51.6% gir gaye. Isse supply chains mein problems aur freight costs badhne ki chinta hai.
Is situation ko dekhte hue, government naye free trade agreements par zor shor se kaam kar rahi hai. UK ke saath May 1, 2026 tak, Oman ke saath June 1 tak, aur EU ke saath bhi early 2027 tak deal ho sakti hai. Yeh sab Indian exporters ke liye market access ko aasan banayenge.
Aur sabse important, jo remittances aati hain na countries se, woh hamare liye ek bada support system hain. FY25 mein remittances ne hamare merchandise trade deficit ka 47% tak cover kiya hai, jo $135.46 billion pahunch gaya hai. Digitalization aur migration badhne se yeh aur aage badhega.
Lekin risk toh hai bhai. Gold aur silver jaise imports par dependency, West Asia ki unstability, aur crude oil prices mein spike - yeh sab cheezein deficit aur badha sakti hain. Rupee ka kamzor hona bhi import ko mehnga karega.
Phir bhi, analysts keh rahe hain ki India ka economy 6.9% tak grow kar sakta hai 2026 mein. Nifty 50 bhi 24,200 points ke upar band hua hai, jo investors ka confidence dikhata hai.