India Rupee Record Low: RBI Chala Rahi Hai Dollar Sales, Forex Reserves Bhi Gire!

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AuthorIshaan Verma|Published at:
India Rupee Record Low: RBI Chala Rahi Hai Dollar Sales, Forex Reserves Bhi Gire!
Overview

Bhai log, apna Indian Rupee par full pressure aa gaya hai! Global market mein jo halchal aur oil prices ki badhotri ne Rupee ko record low par pahuncha diya hai. Isko control karne ke liye RBI dollars bech rahi hai, jiske karan apna forex reserves bhi **2 mahine** ke low, matlab **$709.76 billion** par aa gaya hai. Saath hi, Rupee is saal lagbhag **4%** gir chuki hai.

So, bhenchod, kya chal raha hai? Apni Indian Rupee ki value US Dollar ke saamne kamzor ho rahi hai, aur March 23 ko toh yeh record 93.98 tak gir gayi thi! Isko control karne ke liye, hamari pyari RBI dollars bech rahi hai apne forex reserves se. Aur iska asar dekho, March 13 tak reserves $709.76 billion par aa gaye hain, jo pichhle 2 mahine ka sabse low level hai. Jan end mein yeh $723.8 billion the.

Kyun ho raha hai yeh sab? (The Real Reason)

Isaki wajah hai global market mein chal rahi gadbadi aur upar se crude oil prices ka balloon ki tarah udna. India apni zaroorat ka bahut sara oil import karta hai, aur jab prices badhti hain toh dollars ki demand badh jaati hai, jisse Rupee par pressure aata hai. Middle East mein jo tensions chal rahi hain, uski wajah se Brent crude oil prices $110 per barrel tak pahunchne ka risk hai, Goldman Sachs toh March-April mein iska average $110 rehne ka andaaza laga raha hai.

Reserves aur Debt ka Game

RBI apne reserves se dollar bech kar Rupee ko girne se rokne ki koshish kar rahi hai, jise 'lean against the wind' strategy kehte hain. Par isse reserves kam ho rahe hain. Bachao yeh hai ki official log keh rahe hain ki reserves abhi bhi 11.2 mahine ke imports cover karne ke liye aur desh ke external debt ka lagbhag 95% manage karne ke liye kaafi hain. Desh ka external debt September 2025 tak lagbhag $746 billion tha, jisme se 53% debt USD mein hai. Agar US interest rates badhte hain toh paisa bahar nikalne ka risk rehta hai, jisse Rupee aur weak ho jaati hai. IMF bhi kehta hai ki volatile capital flows aur external debt risks ko dekhte hue reserves ki adequacy decide karni chahiye. India ka short-term external debt bhi reserves ka 19.6% ho gaya tha September 2025 tak.

Aage Kya? (The Outlook)

Experts ka andaaza hai ki agar yahi situation rahi toh 2026 tak Rupee ₹92-₹93 ke level par jaa sakti hai. Haalanki, kuch analyst keh rahe hain ki 2026 ke end tak yeh ₹86-₹87 tak bhi strong ho sakti hai agar dollar weak hua toh. Lekin zyada tar log abhi volatility aur girne ka risk dekh rahe hain, khaas kar agar oil prices high rahi ya global investor confidence down hua toh. Ek naya ₹57,300 crore ($6.20 billion) ka economic stabilization fund launch kiya gaya hai, par lamba time agar global challenges rahe toh yeh bhi kam pad sakta hai. RBI toh situation sambhalne ki poori koshish karegi, par dekhte hain aage kya hota hai!

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