Whalesbook
RBI ki Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) ne unanimously decide kiya hai ki repo rate ko 5.25% par hi rakha jayega. Ye ek cautious move hai kyunki duniya mein geopolitical tension badh raha hai. RBI is situation ko carefully monitor kar raha hai aur India ki economic strength par bharosa kar raha hai, na ki koi jaldi baazi wala action le raha hai.
Governor Sanjay Malhotra ne kaha hai ki agar global supply chain mein rukawat rahi, toh ye sirf supply problem nahi, balki economy ko slow karne wala bada issue ban sakta hai. Matlab, agar oil aur dusre goods ki supply disturb hui, toh sirf mehngai nahi badhegi, pura growth bhi affect ho sakta hai. Lekin filhal MPC ko lagta hai ki India current shocks ko handle kar sakta hai.
Malhotra ki chinta ka main reason hai crude oil prices. West Asia mein tension badhne se oil prices badh sakti hain, jisse India ka current account deficit (CAD) badh sakta hai. FY26 mein ye deficit 2.8% of GDP tak ja sakta hai. Aur jab oil mehenga hoga, toh inflation control karna bhi mushkil hoga. March 2026 tak CPI inflation already 5.1% ke aas paas tha, jo RBI ke 4% target se upar hai. Ye RBI ka approach kuch dusre banks se alag hai, jaise Bank of England jo inflation ko lekar strict hain.
Ab ye 'wait and watch' strategy flexible toh hai, par isme risk bhi hai. Agar geopolitical tensions aur badh gaye aur Brent crude prices $88 per barrel tak pahunch gaye, toh India jaise developing countries ko zyada nuksan ho sakta hai. Imported inflation badhega, CAD aur kharab hoga. Foreign investors bhi hesitate kar sakte hain, jisse rupee par pressure aaega. Plus, ongoing inflation purchasing power kam karegi, jo domestic consumption ke liye theek nahi hai. India ka GDP growth 7.1% FY26 mein estimate kiya gaya hai, jo slow ho sakta hai.
Aage RBI kya karega, ye sab global events par depend karega. Analysts keh rahe hain ki India ki economy strong hai, par agar supply shocks bade rahe, toh RBI ko policy change karni pad sakti hai. Decision 'data-driven' honge, par external pressures ko bhi manage karna hoga.