Whalesbook
Growth Hai Par Share Price Nahi?
Yeh thoda ajeeb hai, par sach hai. Company toh acchi perform kar rahi hai, par stock market mein uska asar dikh nahi raha. Nifty 50 index jo 10.6% saalana (CAGR) se badh raha hai, uske muqable mein Asian Paints sirf 3.5% CAGR, Hindustan Unilever (HUL) toh bas 1.5% CAGR, aur TCS bhi 1.6% CAGR hi de paaya hai December 2019 ke baad se. Iska matlab, agar aap acchi company ko galat price par kharidte hain, toh fayda nahi hota.
2019 Ka Valuation Trap!
Iska sabse bada reason hai 2019 mein in stocks ka bahut hi zyada mehenga hona. Jab 2019 khatam ho raha tha, tab HUL 72x P/E par, Pidilite Industries 76x P/E par, aur Asian Paints toh 79x P/E par trade ho raha tha. Yeh numbers Nifty 50 ke 23.3x P/E se kaafi upar the. Sabko laga ki yeh growth aur profit margins aise hi chalte rahenge. Lekin phir duniya bhar mein interest rates badh gaye, paisa mehenga ho gaya. Ab investors ko safe government bonds par bhi accha return mil raha tha, toh woh expensive stocks se paisa nikalne lage.
Nayi Competition Aur Dheemi Growth
Ab toh haalat aur bhi tough ho gayi hai. Pehle jahan ek tarfa raaj tha, wahan ab aur bhi khiladi aa gaye hain. Jaise ki paint sector mein Asian Paints aur Berger Paints ko competition se mushkil ho rahi hai. Berger Paints ka P/E ab 35.2 ho gaya hai, aur Asian Paints 47.06 par hai. Yeh dono apne 2019 ke levels se kaafi neeche hain aur paint sector ke average 25.65 P/E se bhi upar hain. FMCG sector mein bhi HUL aur Dabur India ki growth dheemi pad gayi hai, aur competition badh gaya hai. IT sector mein toh TCS ka P/E gir kar 16-18 par aa gaya hai, jo sector average 27.7 se bhi kam hai. Banks jaise HDFC Bank (16.08 P/E) aur Kotak Mahindra Bank (19.48 P/E) bhi apne sector average (8.51 aur 9.72) se upar chal rahe hain.
Abhi Bhi Kuch Stocks Mehange Hain!
Bhav girne ke baad bhi, kuch stocks abhi bhi ajeeb tarah se expensive hain. HUL ka P/E ab bhi 48.6 hai, matlab future mein bhi bahut badi growth expect kar rahe hain. Pidilite Industries bhi 57.81 P/E par hai, jo chemical industry ke average 23.64 se bahut zyada hai. Analyst ne toh Dabur India ko 'Sell' bhi recommend kar diya hai. Banks mein bhi HDFC Bank aur Kotak Mahindra Bank ka P/E sector average se upar hai, agar interest rates badhe ya loan ki quality kharab hui toh dikkat ho sakti hai.
Aage Kya?
Agar in stocks ko wapas apni purani performance dikhani hai, toh ya toh inki earnings bahut tezi se badhni chahiye, ya phir inke valuations aur thande hone chahiye. Kuch analyst ab bhi in companies par bharosa kar rahe hain, jaise HDFC Bank ko 'Buy' rating mili hui hai. Lekin yaad rakho, sirf purani acchi performance dekh kar nahi, future prospects ko dekh kar investment karni chahiye.