Whalesbook
Chalo, thoda detail mein jaate hain. Sarkar plan kar rahi hai ki woh ₹340 billion ka naya 10-year bond issue karegi. Iska coupon rate 7% se upar rahega. Yeh bond current benchmark bond ko replace karega jo abhi 7.05% ke aas paas trade ho raha hai. Jab se yeh news aayi hai, new bond market mein 7.00% par chal raha hai, toh sabko idea lag gaya tha ki yield badhega.
Ab aap poochoge, yeh high yield kyun aa raha hai? Iske peeche sabse bada reason hai persistent inflation aur global markets mein oil prices ka bhagna. Harsimran Sahni, jo Anand Rathi Global Finance mein treasury head hain, unhone bola hai ki agar crude oil prices $115-$120 ke range mein rahe, toh yields par pressure continue rahega. Current Brent crude prices $115.48 ke aas paas hain. Socho, India itna oil import karta hai, toh yeh prices seedha impact karte hain.
Iska seedha-seedha matlab hai ki Sarkar ke liye paisa uthana ab aur zyada mehnga ho gaya hai. Aapko pata hai, FY2026-27 ke liye fiscal deficit ka target 4.3% rakha gaya hai, jo approximately ₹16.96 lakh crore hota hai. Aur Govt ka debt toh GDP ka 80.9% ho gaya hai, jo kaafi high hai. Developed countries se compare karo toh India ka 7.02% yield, UK ke 4.97% se bahut zyada hai. Matlab, risk premium zyada hai India ke liye. Yahan tak ki US bonds se bhi India ka yield 264.0 basis points higher hai.
Ab future mein kya ho sakta hai? Agar crude oil prices $130 tak pahunch gaye, toh India ki GDP growth FY27 mein 6% tak ja sakti hai, aur inflation 35-40 basis points badh sakti hai. Moody's jaise agencies ne warning di hai ki geopolitical tensions growth slow kar sakti hain. RBI filhaal 'neutral' stance pe hai, jo inflation aur growth dono ko manage karne ki flexibility deta hai. Analysts ka prediction hai ki India 10-Year Govt Bond Yield agle 12 mahino mein 6.89% ke aas paas rah sakta hai, par yeh sab global economic situation par depend karta hai.