Whalesbook
Dekho, ye jo FDI ka data aaya hai na, usme ek bada twist hai. Ek taraf toh Gross FDI inflows acche dikh rahe hain, pehle 9 mahine mein ₹73.7 billion ho gaye FY2026 tak. Lekin asli kahani Net FDI ki hai, jo January 2026 tak lagatar 6 mahine se negative mein chal raha hai. Iska matlab, jitna paisa bahar se aa raha hai, usse zyada toh wapas nikal raha hai! Iske peeche do bade reason hain: pehla, jo paisa companies wapas le ja rahi hain (repatriation) woh double ho gaya, January 2026 mein hi $4.92 billion ho gaya. Aur dusra, Indian companies bhi apna paisa bahar laga rahi hain. World Bank ne toh 2024 mein hi $24.25 billion ka net FDI outflow record kiya tha.
Ab investors ka dhyan kahan hai? Ye log tech se hat kar ab services aur energy sectors par zyada focus kar rahe hain. Example ke liye, banking (jo ki service sector hai) mein FDI 87% gir gaya FY2023 se FY2025 mein, matlab $898 million se sirf $115 million. Computer software and hardware ka share bhi total inflows mein 44% se gir kar 14% ho gaya FY2025 tak. Lekin services sector overall accha perform kar raha hai, jo 19% inflows le raha hai. Aur renewable energy toh champ raha hai, FY2024 mein 50% badh kar $3.76 billion tak pahunch gaya. Saath hi, Indian companies bhi apna paisa bahar laga rahi hain, sabse zyada Singapore (30% outflows FY2026), Mauritius (12% FY2026), aur UAE (11% FY2025) mein.
Duniya bhar mein bhi FDI kaafi kam hua hai. UNCTAD ne bataya ki 2024 mein 11% aur early 2025 mein 3% gira hai. Europe aur China mein toh aur bhi zyada gira hai. India ka share bhi global FDI mein 2.9% se kam hokar 2.4% ho gaya. Kuch competitors jaise China, global slowdown mein bhi paisa attract kar rahe hain. Analysts keh rahe hain ki India ki valuations bhi kaafi high hain, stocks lagbhag 22 times forward earnings par trade kar rahe hain, jo MSCI emerging markets ke 13.6 times se bahut zyada hai. Ye bhi ek reason ho sakta hai ki kuch long-term investors ruk rahe hain.
Global uncertainty aur interest rates badhne ki wajah se bhi companies paisa wapas le jaati hain. Ye trend ab 13 mahine se chal raha hai. High interest rates investment ko kam attractive bana dete hain. Geopolitical tensions aur crude oil prices bhi currency par pressure dal rahe hain. Rupee kamzor ho sakta hai, forecast hai ki USD/INR 94 tak ja sakta hai mid-2026 tak. Agar rupee kamzor hota hai toh IT jaise export sectors ke liye fayda ho sakta hai, lekin import cost aur inflation badh jayegi.
Ab analysts kya keh rahe hain? Kuch ko lagta hai ki 2026 mein foreign investors wapas aa sakte hain, kyunki India ki economy strong hai aur valuations attractive ho sakti hain. Lekin kuch warning de rahe hain ki geopolitical risks, currency volatility aur sector-specific issues (khaas kar tech mein) ki wajah se ye caution lambi chal sakti hai. IT sector ko generative AI aur high valuations se challenge mil raha hai, lekin renewable energy govt support ki wajah se bright spot hai. Govt chahti hai ki naye investors aayein aur purane bhi rukein, isliye reinvestment ko encourage karna bahut zaruri hai.