Whalesbook
Arre bhai, yeh inflation kyun badh raha hai India mein? Main reason hai apna food basket aur bhai, yeh crude oil jo West Asia mein chal rahe tensions ki wajah se upar jaa raha hai.
April mein retail inflation 3.48% ho gaya, jo pichle 4 mahine ka sabse zyada hai. Aur food prices toh 4.20% tak pahunch gayi, March mein sirf 3.87% thi. Isse aam aadmi ki jeb par pressure toh aa hi raha hai. Yeh sab tab ho raha hai jab Reuters ke economists ne 3.8% ka prediction kiya tha.
Yeh badhti hui crude oil prices hamare liye badi chinta ka vishay hain, kyunki India bahut sara oil import karta hai. Analysts ka kehna hai ki crude oil prices mein har $10 ka jump India ke current account deficit ko lagbhag $15 billion tak badha sakta hai aur retail inflation mein 0.3% se 0.4% jod sakta hai.
Aur is sab mein ek aur drama chal raha hai - apna Indian Rupee kamzor ho raha hai. USD/INR 95.6870 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jo pichle 1 sal mein 12.51% ki girawat hai. Jab currency girta hai, toh hamare liye imports aur bhi mehenge ho jaate hain, aur current account deficit aur badh jaati hai.
Experts ko lagta hai ki yeh global situation sabhi energy-importing nations ke liye ek challenge hai. ICRA ko lagta hai ki May mein inflation 4.1% tak jaa sakta hai, aur Kotak Mahindra Bank jaise log toh FY27 ke liye 5% se upar expect kar rahe hain, jabki RBI ka forecast 4.6% hai. Lagta hai RBI filhaal interest rates wahin rakhega, par future mein October ke aas-paas badha bhi sakta hai.
Global supply issues, El Niño ka dar, aur monsoon kamzor rehne ki possibility - yeh sab cheezein food prices ko aur bhadka sakti hain. Agar oil prices aise hi high rahe aur rupee kamzor hua, toh RBI ke liye rate cut karna aur mushkil hoga. Government bhi energy price hikes se consumers ko bachane ki koshish kar rahi hai, par yeh kab tak chalega, yeh dekhna hoga.