Whalesbook
Global market mein crude oil prices $105 se $111 per barrel tak chal rahi hai, kabhi kabhi toh $120 ko bhi touch kar rahi hai. Lekin India mein petrol aur diesel ke daam April 2022 se bilkul same hain. Socho, baaki countries mein prices 25% se 80% tak badh gaye, yahan nahi! Yeh stability sarkaar ki policy ki wajah se hai, jisme excise duty adjust ki jaati hai. Iska matlab hai ki tel companies ko lag raha hai bada jhatka.
Daily lagbhag ₹2,400 crore ka loss ho raha hai, aur per litre ₹18 (petrol) se ₹35 (diesel) tak ka nuksan ho raha hai current rates par. Isiliye Indian Oil (IOC), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), aur Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) jaise companies ka P/E ratio gir kar 5.4x se 6.12x tak aa gaya hai. Market ko bhi tension hai ki profit margins kam ho rahe hain. March 2026 mein premium fuel ke bhi daam ₹2.35 per litre badhane pade the, jo dikhata hai ki international rates ko absorb karna kitna mushkil ho raha hai.
Hum log toh tax cuts aur subsidies se bach jaate hain, par iska pressure sarkari refiners aur sarkaar ki jeb par padta hai. Analysts keh rahe hain ki elections ke baad prices mein ₹10 ka immediate hike ho sakta hai, aur agar crude oil rates high rahe toh ye ₹25-35 per litre tak bhi ja sakta hai. Agar aisa hua toh inflation 75 basis points tak badh sakti hai, jis se transport aur zaroori cheezon ke daam badh jayenge. Diesel toh waise bhi agriculture, logistics sab ke liye important hai, iska consumption sabse zyada hai. March 2026 mein inflation 3.4% thi, aur FY27 mein ye 4.5-4.7% tak ja sakti hai, jiska bada reason energy prices hain. Desh ki economic growth 7% rehne ki umeed hai, par high oil prices aur inflation ek badi challenge hai.
Sarkari tel companies ke paas paisa kam hota ja raha hai, aur agar support nahi mila toh kuch mahine mein khatam ho sakta hai. Ye losses sarkaar ke fiscal deficit ko bhi badha rahe hain. Fuel subsidies ko hamesha criticize kiya gaya hai kyunki iska fayda aksar ameer log zyada uthate hain. Aur bhai, fuel price hike hona politically bahut sensitive hota hai. Agar daam badhe toh public naraz ho sakti hai, khas kar unke liye jinke liye fuel kharch ghar ke budget ka bada hissa hai. West Asia mein jo tension chal rahi hai, wahan se toh humara 40-50% crude aata hai, aur Hormuz Strait se 40-50% supply jaati hai. Isse supply disruptions ka risk aur badh jaata hai. Sarkaar keh rahi hai ki stock sufficient hai, par volatile region se kabhi bhi price shock aa sakta hai.
Ab jab elections khatam ho rahe hain, market speculate kar raha hai ki fuel pricing policy mein change aa sakta hai. Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas se Sujata Sharma jaise officials keh rahe hain ki abhi koi price hike nahi hoga, par companies ka jo lagtaar nuksan ho raha hai, woh dikha raha hai ki koi adjustment toh hona hi padega. Aane wale kuch hafte decide karenge ki sarkaar public ko subsidy deti rahegi ya companies ki financial health aur economy ko priority degi.