FY27 ke pehle 6 mahino mein India ka fiscal deficit **₹7.14 lakh crore** tak pahunch gaya hai, jo annual target ka **42.1%** hai. Kharchon ki raftar tez aur tax collection sust hone se ab **4.3%** ka GDP target achieve karna mushkil lag raha hai.
Budget par kyu hai pressure?
Sarkar ne financial year 2027 ke pehle 6 mahino mein hi ₹7.14 lakh crore ka fiscal deficit record kar liya hai. Agar hum pichle saal ke isi period se compare karein (jo 36.5% tha), toh yeh figure kaafi warning sign hai. Sarkar ka goal hai ki total deficit ko GDP ke 4.3% tak rakha jaye, par halat thode tight dikh rahe hain.
Kharcha badha, income kam?
Government ka total spending ₹25.5 lakh crore tak pahunch gaya hai, jisme revenue expenditure 10% upar gaya hai. Problem yeh hai ki capital spending—jo desh ki growth ke liye zaroori hai—uski speed 23.7% se gir kar sirf 2.8% par aa gayi hai. Ab agar 4.3% ka target hit karna hai, toh second half mein capital spending ko 16.2% ki speed se badhana hoga, jo abhi ke halat mein ek bada challenge hai.
Revenue ka kya scene hai?
Tax collections sirf 6.1% se badhe hain, jo badhte kharchon ke samne bahut kam hain. Net tax revenue ₹12.76 lakh crore raha. Fuel tax cuts ki wajah se excise duty giri aur personal income tax mein bhi zyada dum nahi dikha. ICRA ke analysts ne toh saaf bol diya hai ki ₹1.3 lakh crore se ₹1.4 lakh crore tak ka 'fiscal slippage' (budget se zyada kharcha) ho sakta hai. Fertilizer aur fuel subsidies ka load upar se pressure bana raha hai.
Investors ko ab sirf ek cheez par nazar rakhni hai: kya sarkar next few months mein tax collection badha paayegi? Agar nahi, toh interest rates aur government borrowing plans par iska asar padhna tay hai.