Whalesbook
Dekho, overall Gross Tax Revenue (GTR) FY26 ke liye jo target rakha tha, woh shayad poora na ho paye. Abhi tak February 2026 tak sirf ₹34.19 lakh crore hi jama hue hain, jabki target tha ₹40.77 lakh crore ka. March mein 11.38% ki tezi chahiye hogi, jo mushkil lag raha hai. Par tension nahi, kyunki fiscal deficit jo GDP ka 4.4% rakhna hai, woh pakka meet ho jayega! Iska credit jaata hai government ki kharchon mein cuts ki planning aur indirect taxes ki zabardast collection ko.
Ab baat karte hain taxes ki. Direct taxes, jisme personal income tax (PIT) aata hai, wahan thodi kami hai. Gross direct tax collection March 17, 2026 tak 4.86% badh kar ₹27.15 lakh crore hui, lekin refunds nikalne ke baad net collection 7.19% badh kar ₹22.80 lakh crore hui. Corporate tax achha perform kar raha hai, lagbhag 13% badh kar ₹10.92 lakh crore ho gaya. Lekin PIT kaafi slow hai, sirf 2.7% badh kar ₹11.32 lakh crore hua, target tha ₹13.12 lakh crore ka. Iska ek reason Budget mein di gayi tax relief hai, jahan ₹12 lakh tak ki income par tax nahi lagta. Achhi baat yeh hai ki tax refunds 18.82% kam aaye hain.
Issi ke opposite, indirect taxes ne toh kamaal hi kar diya! Customs, excise, aur GST ka Centre ka hissa mila kar target se 101.2% zyada collect hua hai! Customs duties 102%, excise 101%, aur CGST 100.8% target ke paas pahunch gaye. Yeh dikhata hai ki economy abhi bhi chal rahi hai aur log tax bhar rahe hain.
Par bhai, yeh jo indirect taxes par itna depend karna pad raha hai, yeh future ke liye thoda chinta wala hai. Agar PIT collection slow raha toh household income aur kharch karne ki power par sawaal uth sakta hai. Global tensions aur fuel prices badhe toh subsidy ka kharcha badh sakta hai, jisse corporate profits aur tax collection par impact aa sakta hai. ICRA ka kehna hai ki FY27 ke deficit target 4.3% par bhi risk ho sakta hai agar energy prices high rahi. Disinvestment se bhi kam paisa aane ka risk hai.
Aage dekho toh FY27 ke liye fiscal deficit target 4.3% of GDP rakha gaya hai. Gross tax revenue 8% badh kar ₹44.04 lakh crore hone ka andaaza hai, jisme direct tax 11.4% badhega aur indirect tax sirf 3%. Government infrastructure par kharch ₹12.2 lakh crore ke aas-paas maintain karegi. Debt-to-GDP ratio bhi FY26 ke estimate 56.1% se kam ho kar FY27 mein 55.6% hone ka chance hai, aur goal hai 50% tak pahunchna.