Whalesbook
Toh hua yun ki December 2025 ke end tak, India ka net external liabilities yaani doosron ka humare upar jo claim tha, woh $10.9 billion gir gaya. Ab yeh total $260.5 billion reh gaya hai. Yeh sab isliye hua kyunki humare hi deshwasiyon ne $12.8 billion ke aas-paas apne paise foreign financial assets mein lagaye. Yeh paisa bahar se jo $1.9 billion aaye usse kaafi zyada hai.
Asal mein, Indians ne direct investments $7.6 billion aur currency & deposits mein $9.4 billion add karke bahar paisa lagaya. Isse humara international assets-to-liabilities ratio badh kar 82.1% ho gaya hai, jo pichle quarter se (jo 81.4% tha) aur ek saal pehle se (jo 74.6% tha) kaafi accha hai. Reserve assets, jo humare total foreign holdings ka 57.4% hain, woh bhi quarter mein $12.4 billion kam hue, lekin saal-dar-saal 8.2% badhe hain.
Par ek 'Par' hai! (The Catch!)
Jabki bahar se hone wale investments (foreign-owned assets in India) quarter mein sirf 0.1% badhe hain - inward direct investment $3.2 billion aur portfolio investment $2.8 billion kam hui, lekin trade credit $11.4 billion badh gaya. Lekin asli chinta ki baat yeh hai ki India ki external liabilities mein debt ka hissa badh raha hai. Ab yeh total external liabilities ka 55.3% ho gaya hai, jo pichle quarter mein 54.8% tha. Socho, India ka total external debt September 2025 tak $746.0 billion tak pahunch gaya tha, aur interest payments bhi 2023 mein kaafi badhe the.
Global Risk Ka Kya Scene Hai?
Apna asset-liability ratio toh sudhar gaya, par global economy mein aajkal tension hai. IMF bhi keh raha hai ki India ka position FY2024/25 mein fundamentals se thoda accha tha, par risks toh hain hi – jaise global demand ka kam hona, duniya mein division, financial market mein uthal-puthal, aur commodity prices ka volatility. India ka external debt GDP ratio September 2025 mein 19.2% tha. Yeh number bahut high nahi lagta, par debt ka badhta hua share ek warning sign hai. US Federal Reserve ke interest rate decisions, Middle East mein chal rahe conflicts, yeh sab cheezein India jaise emerging markets ko affect kar sakti hain, jisse rupiya weak ho sakta hai aur domestic financial conditions tight ho sakti hai. S&P ne India ko 'BBB' rating di hai jo acchi baat hai, par US-China trade tensions ke time FPI outflows dikhe the. IMF ne kaha hai ki India ko import restrictions kam karne chahiye aur FDI norms liberalize karne chahiye.
Paisa Bahar Kyun Ja Raha Hai?
Desh ke log bahar paisa kyun laga rahe hain? Yeh ek sawaal hai. Kya yeh global expansion ka plan hai ya domestic market se confidence kam ho raha hai? Aur jab liabilities mein debt ka hissa badh raha hai, toh agar global financing conditions tight hui ya growth kam hui toh financial fragility badh sakti hai. India ki strong GDP growth aur forex reserves isse bachane mein puri tarah capable nahi hain. Nifty ka PE ratio bhi 21.4 ke aas-paas hai, jo high valuations bata raha hai. S&P, Moody's aur Fitch sabhi ratings de rahe hain, par sabhi ek caution dikha rahe hain.
Aage Kya Hone Wala Hai?
India ki economic growth toh strong rehne wali hai. S&P keh raha hai ki aage teen saal 6.8% GDP growth rahegi, aur IMF FY2025/26 ke liye 6.5% expect kar raha hai. Par iske liye global challenges ko face karna padega. IMF reforms par zor de raha hai aur exchange rate flexibility ki baat kar raha hai. Domestic demand aur international capital flows ke beech balance banana bahut zaroori hai.