Whalesbook
Aise samjho, India ki economy filhaal theek hai, koi immediate crisis nahi hai. Par asli risk pata hai kya hai? Woh yeh ki hum bade decisions lene mein time laga rahe hain. Debt-to-GDP ratio filhaal manageable hai, FY26 mein 56.1% aur FY27 mein 55.6% ke aas-paas rahega. Lekin, agar asset bechne aur FDI laane wale plans tezi se nahi kiye toh global rating agencies jaise S&P, Moody's, Fitch bharosa karna band kar denge. Aur phir jab asli problem aayegi na, tab deal karna mushkil ho jayega.
Apni country mein asset monetize karke $180 billion se $200 billion tak kama sakte hain. NMP 2.0 ka target hai FY26-30 tak ₹10 lakh crore mobilize karna. Iska poora potential ₹16.72 lakh crore hai, jismein ₹5.8 lakh crore private investment se aane wala hai. Pichla NMP 1.0 apne target ka 89% pura kar paya tha. Abhi in projects ko aise deal ki tarah dekho jismein government kaafi serious ho, tabhi bade global funds invest karenge. Aur jo paisa aaye na, use debt kam karne mein use karna chahiye, roz ke kharche mein nahi. Australia, Japan jaise countries ne yeh kiya hai.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) lane ka tareeka badalna padega. Sirf goals set karne se kaam nahi chalega, specific deals pakadni hongi. April-Sept 2025 mein FDI 18% badh kar $35.18 billion ho gaya tha. Lekin wahi, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) ne 2026 mein ₹2 lakh crore se zyada nikaal liye hain. Yeh paisa nikalne se Rupee kamzor ho raha hai aur inflation badh raha hai. Semiconductors, defense, green hydrogen jaise sectors mein bade mauke hain, par sabke liye alag se government support aur clear rules chahiye, jaise investment banking deals mein hota hai. Invest India aur DPIIT ko ab sirf help karne se zyada 'deals close' karne par focus karna hoga.
Emerging markets mein debt ratio dekha jaata hai. India ka central government debt-to-GDP ratio 55-56% hai, jo advanced economies se kam hai. Lekin states ko mila kar total public debt 82% tak pahunch jata hai. Yeh emerging market average 73% se zyada hai. Agar fiscal discipline giri, toh credit rating downgrade ka risk hai. S&P ne August 2025 mein hi rating BBB ki thi. FPI outflows (May 2026 mein $21 billion nikle) Rupee ko aur gira rahe hain aur investors ka trust bhi tod rahe hain. Moody's ne bhi energy price shock ki wajah se India ki growth forecast 6% ( 2026-2027) kar di hai. Asset sale aur FDI mein fail hue toh government spending badhti rahegi, borrowing mehngi ho jayegi.
Ye sab karna hai na, toh system ko thoda fast hona padega. Abhi administrative kaam se nikal kar deal karne par zor dena hai. Isse gharon ke gold, bahar ka paisa, aur shahar ki zameen se fayda utha sakte hain. NAMP aur NLMC jaise frameworks ko strong karna hoga, private investment ko attract karna hoga. Govt ka target hai debt-to-GDP ratio ko 2031 tak 50% karna, jo poori tarah se in asset sales aur investment plans ki speed par depend karta hai. India ka future isi baat par hai ki hum apni balance sheet ko smart tarike se use karein, na ki problem aane ka wait karein.