Whalesbook
Infrastructure sector ka jalwa!
India ke 8 core industries ne April 2026 mein 1.7% ka expansion record kiya hai. March mein yeh growth sirf 1.2% thi, aur pichhle saal April mein toh 1% hi thi. Steel ki demand 6.2% badhi, cement 9.4% upar gaya aur electricity generation mein bhi 4.1% ka sudhar hua. Ye sab chal rahe construction aur infrastructure projects ke kaaran ho raha hai, jisme government projects ka bhi bada haath hai.
Fiscal year 2025-26 ke liye, core sector ki cumulative growth 2.7% rahi hai. Is moderate growth ka asar May ke Index of Industrial Production (IIP) par bhi dikhega, jisme March 2026 mein 4.1% ki growth thi, jo February ke 5.2% se kam hai.
Energy aur Fertilizer Sector mein Problems
Sab sectors mein achhi khabar nahi hai. Paanch sectors mein kami aayi hai, jo economy par pressure dikha rahi hai. Coal production 8.7% gira, crude oil 3.9% aur natural gas 4.3% neeche aaya. Refinery products mein bhi 0.5% ki kami hui. Fertilizer sector bhi 8.6% contract hua, haalanki March ke 24.6% ke muqable ye better hai.
Energy aur fertilizer ki kami ke piche global factors hai, jaise Middle East mein chal rahi tensions jo supply chains aur prices ko affect kar rahi hai. India ko mehange fertilizer kharidne pad rahe hain, jo May 2026 ke liye ek challenge hai.
United Nations ne India ki GDP growth forecast 2026 ke liye 6.4% kar di hai, pehle 6.6% thi. Global uncertainties aur badhte energy import costs iske reasons hain. Analysts ka kehna hai ki agar crude oil $10 per barrel badhta hai, toh India ki GDP growth 44 basis points kam ho sakti hai.
Aage Kya Risks Hain?
Yeh mixed growth economic risks la sakti hai. Jabki construction aur electricity sectors strong chal rahe hain, energy aur fertilizer mein kami India ke industrial base ki weaknesses dikha rahi hai. Global prices ke fluctuations ke kaaran fertilizer import karna bhi ek risk hai.
Fiscal year 2025-26 ke liye core sector ki 2.7% growth, 2025 aur early 2026 ke 4% se zyada growth rates se kaafi kam hai.
Analysts expect kar rahe hain ki May 2026 mein core sector ki recovery 3% ke aas paas ho sakti hai, shayad fertilizer production mein sudhar ke saath. May ke liye IIP growth bhi moderate rahne ki ummeed hai. United Nations ko lagta hai ki India ki GDP 2026 mein 6.4% aur 2027 mein 6.6% grow karegi. India Ratings & Research ne FY27 ke liye 6.7% GDP growth predict kiya hai, aur geopolitical developments, inflation, aur El Nino ka agriculture par asar bhi challenges hain.