Whalesbook
Kyun badh raha hai itna cash ka demand?
Asal mein, ye sirf ek chhota sa jump nahi hai. India mein cash circulation ₹42.3 trillion ke all-time high par pahunch gaya hai, jo pichle saal ke comparison mein 11.8% zyada hai. Aur toh aur, sirf April ke pehle half mein hi ₹61,000 crore cash circulation mein aa gaya! Experts keh rahe hain ki iske peeche kai reasons hain. ICICI Securities ke Abhishek Upadhyay batate hain ki gaon mein demand kafi strong hai, aur GST mein kuch rozmarra ki cheezon par tax cut hone se bhi logon ne kharch badhaya hai. State Bank of India ke Soumya Kanti Ghosh ka kehna hai ki jab interest rates kam hote hain, toh log cash zyada use karte hain, especially rural areas mein.
Digital India ke beech cash ka role!
Ab yeh mat socho ki UPI aur digital payments ke chalte cash khatam ho jayega. Sachai yeh hai ki India ka cash-to-GDP ratio abhi bhi 11.2% tak hai (January 2026 tak ka estimate), jo Japan, Eurozone, China, aur US se bhi zyada hai. Iska ek bada reason hai desh ki informal economy, jahan cash se kaam tez aur seedha ho jaata hai. Reports yeh bhi ishara kar rahi hain ki agar informal sector mein thodi hardship badhi hai, toh log cash-based transactions par zyada shift ho rahe hain.
Bankon ki liquidity par load!
Jab itna sara paisa logon ke haath mein rehta hai, toh banking system se liquidity 'drain' ho jati hai. Matlab, banks ke paas lending ke liye kam paisa bachta hai. HDFC Bank ka forecast hai ki liquidity surplus fiscal year ke first half mein average 1% se ghat kar second half mein 0.5% ho sakta hai. Economist Sakshi Gupta bhi warn kar rahi hain ki agar cash ki demand inflation ya rural spending ki wajah se badhti rahi, toh yeh liquidity projections kam ho sakti hain. RBI ke liye yeh liquidity manage karna thoda trickier ho jaata hai, kyunki unhe short-term interest rates ko target karna hota hai.
Aage kya expect karein?
Aage dekhein toh lagta hai yeh cash demand abhi rukne wali nahi hai. Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank, predict kar rahi hain ki FY26 mein 'currency leakage' ₹2.2 lakh crore tak ho jayega, jo FY25 ke ₹2.09 lakh crore se zyada hai. Toh bhaiyo, cash abhi bhi Indian economy ka ek vital hissa hai, chahe digital kitna bhi badh jaye!