Whalesbook
Yaar, ab kya bole! Crisil ne ek report nikali hai aur unka kehna hai ki India ka current account deficit (CAD) is saal 2.2% tak ho jayega. Pichhle saal (fiscal 2026) yeh sirf 0.8% pe tha, matlab double se bhi zyada ho jayega! Ye sab global market mein jo oil ke daam badh rahe hain, uski wajah se ho raha hai.
Crisil ka maanna hai ki Brent crude ab $90 se $95 per barrel ke beech rahega, jo ki pichhle saal ke average se 32% upar hai. Socho, jab oil ka import bill badhega toh apna balance of payments toh bigdega hi. Oil toh hamare puraane trade deficit ka lagbhag 36% hissa hai, toh samjh lo kitna pressure aayega.
Aur sirf oil hi nahi, baaki goods exports bhi thode slow hain international demand kam hone ki wajah se. Plus, West Asia mein jo chal raha hai, usse bhi oil supplies aur wahan se aane wali remittances par impact pad sakta hai. April mein hi apna merchandise trade deficit $28.4 billion ho gaya tha, March mein yeh $20.7 billion tha.
Lekin ek acchi baat yeh hai ki services sector sambhal raha hai. Services exports April mein 13.4% badhe hain year-on-year, aur imports kam hone se services trade surplus $20.6 billion ho gaya hai. Yeh thoda buffer de raha hai hamare goods deficit ko face karne mein.