Whalesbook
Chalo, sabse pehle achi khabar sunte hain. India ki International Investment Position (IIP) ka jo data December 2025 mein aaya hai, woh kaafi positive lag raha hai. Apne international assets aur liabilities ka ratio badhkar 82.1% ho gaya hai, jo pichhle saal 74.6% tha. Ye kyu hua? Kyuki Indian companies aur logon ne bahar countries mein zyada invest kiya hai. Isse Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ko monetary policy banane mein thodi zyada flexibility mil gayi hai.
Par haan, is headline improvement ke peeche ek complex picture bhi hai. Foreign equity investment India mein thoda kam hua hai, aur country ka jo bahari debt hai woh liabilities mein badh raha hai. Yeh thoda chinta ka vishay ho sakta hai.
RBI ke detailed data ke mutabik, December 2025 tak India ka IIP ratio 82.1% par pahunch gaya, jo ek saal pehle 74.6% tha. Ye ratio country ki economic shocks se ladne ki capacity batata hai. Overseas assets badhne ka reason Indian residents dwara badhi hui holdings hai. Outward direct investments US$7.6 billion se badhe aur currency aur deposits mein holdings US$9.4 billion badhi quarter mein. Haalanki, overall reserve assets US$12.4 billion kam hokar $687.7 billion ho gaye, par saal-dar-saal woh 8.2% badhe hain. Ye RBI ke liye acha hai, unhe shayad rupee defend karne ki jaldi nahi padegi.
India ka international assets-to-liabilities ratio pichhle do saalon mein steadily badha hai, 71.4% se 81.3% aur ab 82.1% December 2025 tak. Ye Indian corporations ke global expansion plans ko dikhata hai. Par yeh outward investment ke contrast mein inward capital flows mein kami hai. Aur sabse concerning yeh hai ki liabilities mein debt ka share badhkar 55.3% ho gaya hai December 2025 end tak, jo pichhle quarter mein 54.8% tha. Iska matlab hai ki hum equity se zyada debt par depend ho rahe hain. Yeh global interest rate cycles aur volatile capital flows se risky ho sakta hai, jo rupee depreciation aur domestic financial conditions ko tight kar sakta hai.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) bhi thode cautious hain. 2025 aur early 2026 mein Indian stocks se kaafi outflows dekhe gaye, jiske karan regional peers ke muqable underperformance raha. IMF ne bhi global uncertainties jaise ki weakening external demand, geopolitical tensions ko highlight kiya hai. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra toh current account deficit aur country's external position par confident hain, par RBI ka 'breathing room' shayad in pressures ko manage karne mein zyada hai.
Aage dekhein toh India ka external sector strong rehne ki ummeed hai, domestic demand aur services exports ke support se. Indian sovereign bonds ka global indices mein aana bhi inflows boost kar sakta hai. Par haan, global economic uncertainties bani hui hain. RBI ka exchange rate volatility manage karna aur adequate foreign exchange reserves maintain karna crucial hoga is dynamic global financial environment mein.