Whalesbook
Chhaayi Khushiyali: Geopolitical Tension Kam Hui!
Aaj market mein ek dum se khushiyon ki leher aa gayi! Kyunki US aur Iran ke beech 2 hafte ke liye ceasefire ka announcement ho gaya hai. Is khabar se S&P BSE Sensex ne lagbhag 2,541.76 points ki udaan bhari aur 77,157.73 par pahunch gaya. Wahi, NSE Nifty50 bhi 746.20 points badhkar 23,869.85 par aa gaya. Is rally se market cap mein trillions jud gaye.
Is ceasefire ka ek bada fayda hua hai crude oil par, jo $110 ke upar se neeche girkar $95 per barrel ke bhi neeche chala gaya hai. Isse inflation ki chinta kaafi kam ho gayi hai aur India ke liye import costs bhi ghat gaye hain. Market itna oil price par sensitive hai, ye aaj phir se dikh gaya.
Sectors Mein Tagda Divide: Aviation Aur Infra Chamke, Tech Daba
Is geopolitical calm ka sabse pehle fayda aviation aur infrastructure stocks ko hua. InterGlobe Aviation ne sabse zyada 9.41% ki tezi dikhayi. Uske baad Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 7.12%, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd. 6.85%, Bajaj Finance Ltd. 6.76%, aur Bajaj Finserv Ltd. 6.32% bhi bade gainers mein rahe.
Larsen & Toubro jaise bade infrastructure player ka P/E ratio lagbhag 34.0x hai, jo thoda zyada lag sakta hai, par company ke strong order book ke hisaab se theek hai. Adani Ports, jo India ka sabse bada port operator hai, ka P/E 25.91x ke aas paas hai, jo uske peers ke comparison mein discount par hai.
Par, ye positive vibe IT sector tak nahi pahunchi. Tech Mahindra Ltd. sabse zyada 1.19% gira, aur Infosys Ltd. bhi 0.13% neeche aaya. IT firms ko revenue growth mein kami dikh rahi hai, aur currency depreciation unke reported profits mein madad kar raha hai, organic demand mein nahi. Saath hi, 2026 ke liye projected salary hikes bhi 2025 se kam hain, jo margin par pressure daal sakta hai.
Sector Performance Ka Asli Sach: Valuations Aur Challenges
Jahan kuch sectors ne tezi dikhayi, wahi unki andaroni health aur valuations alag-alag hain. InterGlobe Aviation ke bhagne ke bawajood, aviation sector mein ATF costs badhne, currency depreciation aur capacity ki kami se future outlook negative hai. February 2026 tak 13-15% fleet grounded thi. Yeh dikhata hai ki sirf crude oil kam hone se airlines ko direct fayda nahi hota agar baaki kharche zyada rahein.
Bajaj Finance aur Bajaj Finserv jaise financial services firms bhi badhe, par Bajaj Finserv ka P/E ratio lagbhag 26.93x hai, jo sector average se premium hai. Ye valuation, recent underperformance aur 52-week low ke aas paas trade karne ke baad, thoda stretched lag raha hai.
Capital goods sector, jisme L&T bhi hai, government ke spending aur strong order books ke kaaran solid hai. L&T ka P/E 34.0x construction industry average se kaafi upar hai.
Market mein FIIs ke continuous outflow bhi ek badi chinta ka vishay bane hue hain.
Kya Rally Tikegi? Abhi Bhi Hai Risks!
Itni tezi hone ke bawajood, rally kitni tikegi ye kehna mushkil hai. FPIs ne April 5, 2026 ko khatam hue hafte mein ₹23,801 crore ka outflow kiya hai. Middle East ki situation kabhi bhi badal sakti hai aur oil prices phir se badha sakti hai.
Aviation sector mein toh clear risks hain. Kam crude oil ke baad bhi, ATF costs, rupee ka girna, capacity issues aur airspace disruptions ki wajah se outlook negative hai.
IT sector ka piche rehna bhi deeper issues ko bata raha hai. Slower revenue growth, rupee ka impact, aur salary hikes mein kami ye ishare de rahe hain ki IT firms ek mature growth phase mein hain.
Aage Kya Dekhna Hai? Policy Decision Aur Trends
Ab sabki nigahein RBI ki monetary policy decision par hain, jo April 8, 2026 ko aane wali hai. Rates shayad change na hon, par RBI ke inflation aur growth par comments market ko direction de sakte hain. Analysts ka kehna hai ki rally tabhi sustainable hogi jab Middle East mein situation control mein rahe, oil prices stable rahein aur FII outflows kam hon.