Whalesbook
Vote Maange, Budget Ujaade
Fundamentally, states elections mein jeetne ke liye welfare schemes par kharcha badha rahe hain, aur yeh sirf poll ke time tak nahi ruk raha. Yeh schemes expenditure ko permanently badha rahi hain, especially revenue side par. Isi wajah se, states ka fiscal deficit jo 3% GDP ka target tha, woh ab bas ek minimum level (floor) ban gaya hai, maximum (ceiling) nahi. Kai economists bhi yahi keh rahe hain aur new budgets mein bhi yahi dikh raha hai.
States ka Debt Badh Raha Hai
Latest figures dekho toh sab clear ho jayega. States ka combined budget deficit FY25 mein 3.3% of GDP ho gaya, jo 3 saal baad 3% ke upar gaya hai. Kai states toh is level se bhi upar hain: Tamil Nadu ka 3.48% (FY26 RE), West Bengal ka 4% (FY26 RE) aur Kerala ka 3.86% (FY25). Assam ka toh 5.75% (FY25) hai! Iska matlab states ke liye 3% ka target achieve karna kitna mushkil hai. Aur toh aur, states ka total debt March 2026 tak 29.2% of GDP ho jayega, jo FRBM Committee ke 20% ke suggestion se kaafi upar hai. Punjab aur Himachal Pradesh toh 45% GDP se bhi zyada debt mein hain, aur Tamil Nadu & West Bengal 30% ke upar.
Investment Par Maar
Jab revenue par kharcha badhta hai, toh capital expenditure (yani development projects wala kharcha) ya toh ruk jata hai ya bahut dheere badhta hai. Government ne koshish ki hai ki capital spending 2.7% of GDP par maintain rahe, par jab budget pressure badhta hai, toh long-term important projects side mein chale jaate hain. Jaise Tamil Nadu mein election pledges ke karan 2.2% of GDP ka extra kharcha ho sakta hai, jisse future projects affect ho sakte hain. Investment kam hone se economy ki long-term growth ko nuksan pahunchta hai.
Borrowing Expensive Hua
States jab zyada deficit mein hote hain, toh unke liye paisa borrow karna mehanga ho jata hai. State Development Loans (SDLs) aur government securities ke beech ka yield difference ab 0.65-0.75% ho gaya hai, jo average se lagbhag double hai. Yeh bada difference indicate karta hai ki market states ko zyada risky maanta hai aur unhe zyada interest dena padta hai. States dwara itna zyada debt issue karne se central government bonds par bhi pressure aata hai, jisse poore market mein borrowing costs badh sakte hain. Yeh sab milakar fiscal pressure badhata hai aur India ki credit rating par bhi risk aa sakta hai.
Underlying Problems
Kai states mein yeh budget shortfalls sirf temporary issues nahi, balki underlying structural problems dikhate hain. Election ke time populist promises karne ka pressure lagaar rehta hai, jisse kharcha badhta hi jayega. Sabse badi problem yeh hai ki borrowed money ko regular expenses ke liye use kiya ja raha hai, jaisa kai states mein revenue deficit dikha raha hai. Ameer aur gareeb states ke beech ka gap bhi badh raha hai. Is tarah se debt-to-GDP ratios badhte jayenge aur kai states 30% se bhi upar sustainable levels par pahunch sakte hain.
Aage Ka Outlook
Aage chal kar states par fiscal pressure bana rahega. Kuch bade states mein elections aa rahe hain, toh populist promises ka temptation zyada hoga, jisse deficits aur upar jayenge. RBI aur central government chahti hai ki fiscal discipline rahe, par states ki kharch karne ki aadat aur weak tax collection overall debt-to-GDP ratio aur economic health ke liye ek bada challenge hai. 3% fiscal deficit ka mark ab ek baseline ban gaya hai, aur experts ko lagta hai ki yeh trend continue hoga. States ko apna debt aur borrowing costs manage karne par dhyan dena hoga.