Whalesbook
External Factors ka Impact
Market mein jo yeh khushi ka mahaul hai na, woh largely bahar ke factors ki wajah se hai. Sabse badi baat hai US aur Iran ke beech tension kam hone ki ummeed. Isse oil prices bhi neeche aa rahe hain, jo ek badi relief hai hamare liye.
Market Open Kaise Rahega?
Sabse pehle toh GIFT Nifty futures ko dekho, woh 24,228 ke level par trade kar rahe hain, matlab Nifty 50 apna last close 23,842.65 se kaafi upar khulne wala hai. Poora global market bhi positive hai, Asian stocks 3% tak badhe hain aur Wall Street bhi kal upar band hua tha. Brent crude oil bhi $95 barrel ke neeche chala gaya, abhi $94.38 ke aas-paas hai. India toh bade oil importer mein se hai, toh isse inflation control mein rehta hai aur current account deficit par bhi pressure kam hota hai.
Lekin, Risk Bhi Kam Nahi!
Par bhaiyo, yeh sirf ek side hai story ka. Asal mein jo economic numbers aa rahe hain, woh thoda tension wala hai. March mein India ki retail inflation 3.4% ho gayi hai, jo ek saal ka highest hai. Haan, yeh RBI ke target 2-6% range mein toh hai, par food prices 3.87% tak pahunch gayi hain. Agar yeh badhti rahi toh logon ki kharch karne ki capacity kam ho sakti hai.
FPIs Ki Chhutti Jaari Hai
Aur suno, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) abhi bhi paisa nikaal rahe hain. April ke pehle 10 dinon mein hi unhone lagbhag ₹48,213 crore bahar bhej diye hain. March mein toh record ₹1.17 lakh crore nikale the! Is saal ab tak FPIs ne ₹1.8 lakh crore se zyada ka outflow kiya hai. Matlab, foreign investors abhi bhi yahan risk se bach rahe hain.
Valuation Aur Analyst Views
Nifty 50 ka P/E ratio lagbhag 20.9 hai aur Sensex ka 21.1. Yeh numbers historical average ke paas hain, par agar input costs badhe aur geopolitical tensions rahe toh earnings par pressure aa sakta hai. IMF ne India ki GDP growth forecast 6.5% tak badha di hai, par yeh bhi dhyan rakhna hoga.
Analyst Kya Keh Rahe Hain?
Brokerage firms bhi thoda cautious hain. BNP Paribas ne toh apna Nifty target 11% kam karke 25,500 kar diya hai, kyunki unhe earnings growth thodi slow lag rahi hai aur crude oil prices ka issue bhi hai. JPMorgan bhi quality aur momentum stocks par focus karne ko keh raha hai.
Rupee Ka Bhi Rona
Indian Rupee bhi dollar ke saamne 93.92 ke historical low par pahunch gaya hai. Isse FPIs ka return kam ho jata hai aur imports bhi mehengi ho jaati hain.
Kya Dekhna Hai Aage?
Abhi market ki direction toh US-Iran diplomacy, oil prices aur FPI flows par hi depend karegi. Domestic institutional investors buying kar rahe hain, jo FPI selling ko manage kar raha hai, par global uncertainty aur domestic inflation ka risk abhi bhi hai. Toh bhaiyo, sabra rakho aur company earnings aur economic data par nazar rakho.