Indian Markets Bhari Giraavat: Geopolitical Tension aur Rate Hike ne Machaya Haahaakaar!

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AuthorKavya Nair|Published at:
Indian Markets Bhari Giraavat: Geopolitical Tension aur Rate Hike ne Machaya Haahaakaar!
Overview

Arre bhaiyo aur behno, aaj market mein ekdum se hahakaar mach gaya! Geopolitical tension aur US rate hike ki fears ne Nifty aur Sensex dono ko **1.5%** tak neeche gira diya. Pichli saari rally ka gain wash out ho gaya aur **₹6.79 lakh crore** ki wealth gayab ho gayi.

So, why did this sudden crash happen?

Sabse bada reason toh US aur Iran ke beech badhti hui tension hai. Khabrein aa rahi hain ki US military kuch actions ke liye ready hai, jisse duniya bhar mein conflict badhne ka dar hai. Is vajah se crude oil prices bhi bhaag gaye – Brent $71.50 aur WTI $66.50 ke aas paas pahunch gaya. India jaise desh, jo oil import karte hain, unke liye toh yeh inflation ka double blow hai.

Iske saath hi, US Federal Reserve ki January meeting minutes se pata chala ki agar inflation control mein nahi aaya toh woh interest rates ko aur badha sakte hain. Iski wajah se US 10-Year Treasury yields 4.10% ke paar chale gaye. Jab USA mein interest rates badhte hain, toh foreign investors emerging markets se paisa nikal kar wahan invest karte hain. Iska asar hamare Rupee par bhi dikha, jo gir kar USD/INR 91.1700 tak pahunch gaya. Ye sab mil kar ek 'risk-off' sentiment bana diya, jisse investors ne jaldi jaldi apna maal bechna shuru kar diya.

Iska seedha asar hamare Indian markets par pada. Aaj, February 19, 2026 ko, Nifty 50 1.41% neeche gir kar 25,454.35 points par band hua, aur BSE Sensex bhi 1.48% gir kar 82,498.14 points par aa gaya. Pichli 3 din ki rally ka sara gain gayab ho gaya aur hamare investors ki jeb se lagbhag ₹6.79 lakh crore kam ho gaye. Market mein dar ka mahaul tha, jiska pata chalta hai India VIX se, jo 10% se zyada uchhal kar 13.50 ke aas paas pahunch gaya.

Seedhe shabdon mein, jismein bhi dekho sab stocks gir rahe the. Nifty 50 ke lagbhag sabhi aur Sensex ke kaafi zyada stocks laal nishaan mein the. Broader market bhi nahi bacha; Nifty Midcap 100 1.59% aur Nifty Smallcap 100 1.27% gir gaye. Sabse zyada weakness aviation, auto, banking aur FMCG sectors mein dikhi.

Ek aur cheez jo note karne wali hai woh hai mid aur small-cap stocks ki valuations. Nifty Smallcap 100 ka P/E 30.7 aur Nifty Midcap 100 ka 33.45 tha. Ye values India se kaafi zyada hain, jahan MSCI Emerging Markets Index ka P/E sirf 18.32 hai. Isi wajah se jab global market mein gadbad hui toh ye zyada gire. Yaad karo, pichle saal February 2025 mein bhi Nifty Smallcap 100 13.07% aur Midcap 100 10.8% gir gaye the. Yeh dikhata hai ki ye segments global shocks ke liye kaafi sensitive hain.

Aage kya ho sakta hai?

Market mein abhi thoda turbulence rehne ki ummeed hai jab tak ye geopolitical issues aur US inflation ka scene clear nahi ho jata. Analysts keh rahe hain ki jab tak Nifty 50 26,000 ka level phir se cross nahi karta, tab tak asli confidence wapas nahi aayega. Filhaal toh sabki nazar global developments aur US Fed ke announcements par hi rahegi.

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