Election Aur Oil Ka Combined Impact!
Sabse pehle toh bhaiyon, international market mein oil prices ne thodi rahat di hai. Brent crude ab $109 barrel ke aas paas aa gaya hai, jo last week $125 tak pahunch gaya tha. Aapko pata hai na, India lagbhag 90% oil import karta hai, toh jab rates badhte hain toh import bill aur inflation dono par pressure aata hai. Ab jab rates stable hue hain, toh thodi chinta kam hui.
Aur ek badi khabar yeh hai ki Prime Minister Narendra Modi ki Bharatiya Janata Party West Bengal mein achhi performance kar rahi hai. Election results se policy continuity ki umeed hai, aur financial markets ko yeh political stability bahut pasand hai. Dusri states ke results bhi is mood ko support kar rahe hain.
Bond Market Mein Kya Hua?
Is sab ka asar dekho bonds par. Benchmark Indian 6.48% 2035 bond ki price upar gayi, aur yield 6.9902% par close hua, jo pehle 7.0148% tha. Yaad hai na, bond price aur yield inverse hote hain – price badhta hai toh yield kam hota hai, jisse value investors ko achha returns milta hai. Friday ko market holiday thi, isliye trading kam hui.
Monetary Indicators Bhi Down?
Government bonds ke saath saath, India ke overnight index swap (OIS) rates bhi thode neeche aaye hain. One-year OIS rate 5.97% tha, aur five-year OIS rate 6.58% tha. Two-year swap rate toh traded hi nahi hua.
Global Oil Ka Context
Global oil market mein yeh easing US President Donald Trump ke comments ke baad bhi hui hai, jismein unhone Strait of Hormuz ke paas tensions kam karne ki baat kahi thi. Yeh strait global oil supply ka 20% carry karta hai. Halanki Iran ke saath talks mein kuch khas progress nahi dikha, par risk kam hone ki perception ne prices ko affect kiya.
