Global market mein crude oil ki badhti keematon ne India ke bond market ko pressure mein daal diya hai. September ki inflation **5.54%** par pahunch gayi hai, jisse RBI ka stance cautious hone ke chances badh gaye hain.
Bond prices kyun ho rahe hain down?
Crude oil ki keematein badhne ka seedha asar domestic inflation par padta hai. India ek bada oil importer hai, aur jab prices upar jaati hain toh transport aur logistics costly ho jaate hain. Iske chalte market mein bond yields badhne lage hain. Benchmark 2036 bond ki yield ab 7.42% ke level ko test kar sakti hai, jiska matlab hai ki aapke paas agar purane bonds hain, toh unki market value ab kam ho rahi hai.
RBI ka kya role hai?
September mein inflation 5.54% record ki gayi hai, jo RBI ke 6% ke upper tolerance limit ke kaafi kareeb hai. RBI ka main target inflation ko control mein rakhna hai, isliye agar oil prices aise hi high rahe, toh interest rates ko jaldi niche laana mushkil ho sakta hai. Market ab isi umeed mein hai ki borrowing costs lambe samay tak high reh sakti hain.
Investors ko kya karna chahiye?
Overnight indexed swap market mein volatility se saaf pata chalta hai ki traders pehle se hi high capital costs ko expect kar rahe hain. Agar aap debt mutual funds ya debt instruments mein invest kiye hue hain, toh crude oil ke trends par nazar rakhein. Jab tak energy prices stabilize nahi hote, bond market mein thoda caution rakhna zaroori hai.