Whalesbook
West Asia ki tension ne phir se machaya shor!
Asal mein, West Asia mein jo US aur Iran ke beech ceasefire talks the na, woh bigad gaye hain. Iss wajah se crude oil prices phir se hawa mein udne lagi hain. Brent crude $97-98 per barrel tak pahunch gaya hai, aur WTI bhi $92-94 par hai. Woh critical Strait of Hormuz, jahan se almost 20% global oil supply nikalta hai, woh phir se band ho gaya hai. Pata hai, pehle April 13 ko bhi jab talks failed hue the, tab oil $100 ke paar chala gaya tha.
Indian Banks ka Q4 FY26 mein Dhamakedaar Performance!
Lekin is sab global tension ke beech, apne Indian banks ne kamaal kar diya! HDFC Bank ka consolidated net profit 8.04% badh kar ₹20,350.76 crore ho gaya March quarter mein. Unka Net Interest Margin (NIM) bhi 3.38% par stable raha aur gross NPA ratio sudhar kar 1.15% ho gaya.
ICICI Bank bhi peeche nahi raha, unka consolidated net profit 9.28% badh kar ₹14,755 crore ho gaya. ICICI Bank ne toh loan loss provisions bhi 90% tak kam kar diye, jo asset quality ki achhi khabar hai.
Brokerage kya keh rahe hain aur future mein kya?
Sab achha lag raha hai par Fitch Ratings keh rahi hai ki liquidity tight hone aur funding costs badhne se banks ke NIMs par pressure aa sakta hai. Deposit growth toh badh raha hai par mehnga wholesale funding zyada use ho raha hai.
Competitor valuations dekho toh SBI ka P/E lagbhag 11.59, HDFC Bank ka 16.44, ICICI Bank ka 16.31, aur Kotak Mahindra Bank ka 32.23 chal raha hai.
Nuvama toh HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI aur Axis Bank par positive hai, par Kotak Mahindra Bank ko lekar caution kar rahe hain.
IT Sector aur dusre risks ko na bhulein
Bank toh achhe hain par Indian IT sector abhi bhi pressure mein hai. AI ki wajah se revenue aur valuations par asar pad raha hai, Nifty IT index toh is saal ab tak 25% gir gaya hai.
HDFC Bank ne khud kaha hai ki West Asia conflict se small business borrowers ko short-term risk ho sakta hai. Aur pata hai kya, HDFC Bank ke non-executive chairman, Atanu Chakraborty, ne bhi governance concerns ki wajah se resign kar diya hai.
Aage kya hoga?
Market ka mood abhi US-Iran conflict aur crude oil prices par hi depend karega. Banking sector ne toh dikha diya hai ki woh tough times mein bhi perform kar sakta hai, par global geopolitical instability aur volatile commodity prices se economic outlook par risk bana rahega.