Whalesbook
Asal mein, dono deshon ke beech CEPA agreement jo May 2022 mein start hua tha, uske baad se trade mein kaafi tezi aayi hai. FY 2025-26 mein, India aur UAE ka merchandise trade $101.25 billion tak pahunch gaya, jo pichle saal se thoda zyada hai. India ne apna exports around 2% badha kar $37.36 billion kiya, lekin UAE se imports 0.77% badh kar $63.89 billion ho gaye.
Trade Deficit Mein Badi Giraavat
Is import-export ka asar yeh hua ki India ka trade deficit FY 2025-26 mein $26.53 billion ho gaya. Yeh deficit pehle se hi lagatar badh raha hai; 2021 mein yeh $17.7 billion tha aur 2024 ke first half mein $9.47 billion tha. Yeh deficit 2010 se 2020 ke beech lagbhag double ho gaya hai. UAE ka trade surplus mostly oil aur gas ki wajah se hai, jabki India UAE se mineral fuels, precious stones, aur pearls jaise cheezein import karta hai.
UAE Se FDI Mein Kami
Trade deficit ke saath saath, ek aur chinta ki baat yeh hai ki UAE se India mein Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) bhi bahut kam ho gaya hai. April se December 2025-26 mein, UAE ka FDI India mein sirf $2.45 billion raha. Yeh FY 2024-25 ke poore $4.34 billion se kaafi kam hai. Pehle UAE India ke top investors mein se tha, aur 2022-23 mein toh 7.28% share ke saath sabse zyada investment kiya tha. Abhi UAE India ka seventh-largest investor hai, jahan April 2000 se March 2025 tak cumulative FDI $22.84 billion raha hai. Lekin yeh latest dip investors ke liye ek warning sign ho sakta hai.
Sector Growth Ke Baad Bhi Chinta
CEPA ne gems & jewellery, engineering goods, electronics, aur agriculture jaise sectors mein trade badhane mein definitely help ki hai. India ke non-oil exports bhi, especially electronics mein, kaafi ache chal rahe hain. Lekin, energy products aur precious stones ke imports ki demand itni high hai ki yeh growth overall trade gap ko kam nahi kar pa rahi hai.
Ambitious Goals Aur Challenges
Dono desh 2030 tak trade ko $100 billion aur 2032 tak $200 billion karne ka target rakhte hain. Lekin current situation mein yeh difficult lag raha hai kyunki India value ke terms mein zyada import kar raha hai. India ka overall trade deficit FY 2025-26 mein $119.30 billion ho gaya hai. West Asia mein geopolitical instability India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) jaise projects ke liye bhi risk ban sakti hai.
Aage Ka Kya Plan Hai?
Iss situation mein, goals achieve karne ke liye India ko apna export growth accelerate karna hoga, high-value exports par focus karna hoga, aur UAE se sustained FDI attract karna hoga. Current trade trajectory ki sustainability iss baat par depend karti hai ki deficit kaise control hota hai aur FDI flows kaise maintain rehte hain.