Whalesbook
Market Ka Haalchaal (March 30)
Socho, March 30 ko market band hote waqt BSE Sensex 1,635.67 points neeche gir kar 71,947.55 pe aa gaya, matlab 2.22% ki giraavat. Aur NSE Nifty 50 bhi 488.20 points neeche, 22,331.40 pe close hua, 2.14% down. Lagbhag 2,750 shares is din gire, bas 73 hi upar gaye. Aur is March mein toh Nifty 11% gir gaya, jo ki March 2020 ke baad sabse badi monthly girawat hai.
RBI Ka Naya Forex Rule Kya Hai?
Ab ye RBI ka naya rule samajho jo April 10 se लागू ho raha hai. Banks ke liye net open forex positions par ab bas $100 million ka cap laga diya hai. Iska motive hai speculative trading ko control karna aur Indian Rupee ko zyada girne se rokna. Humara Rupee already US Dollar ke saamne 95.12 ke record low par pahunch gaya tha. Ye rule aane se banks ko apni currency holdings adjust karni padegi, matlab unhe existing positions ko unwind karna padega, jiski wajah se market mein pressure aa raha hai.
Global Scenes Bhi Kuch Khaas Nahi
Aur kya chal raha hai duniya mein? Middle East mein Iran ke aas paas tension aur badh gayi hai, jiski wajah se crude oil ka price $110 per barrel ke upar chala gaya hai. Sabko stagflation (mehengai aur growth rukna) ka dar satane laga hai aur log gold jaise safe assets ki taraf bhaag rahe hain. Asia ke markets bhi isi wajah se neeche gire. Japan ka Nikkei 4.6% aur South Korea ka Kospi 4% se zyada down the. US mein bhi Nasdaq aur Dow Jones correction territory mein aa gaye. Isi global dar ki wajah se Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) ne March mein lagbhag $12 billion Indian stocks se nikaal liye.
Kounse Sectors Zyada Gire?
Is sell-off mein sabse zyada dukhi banking aur financial services sector raha, jo 3.5% aur 3.6% tak neeche gire. PSU banks bhi 2-4% down the. Iske alawa Auto, FMCG, Realty jaise sectors bhi 2-4% gire. Bas Metals aur Oil & Gas stocks thoda stable rahe kyunki commodity prices badh rahi thi. Ab ye market correction aane se valuations thode attractive ho gaye hain, Nifty ka P/E ratio 19 ho gaya hai, jo ki 10-year average 22.4 se kam hai. Lekin poori market cap $533 billion se zyada kam hokar $4.77 trillion par aa gayi hai.
Banks Aur Rupee Ke Liye Kya Risks Hain?
RBI ka ye naya rule banks ke liye thoda risky hai. Unhe apni positions ko unwind karna padega, jiski wajah se unko mark-to-market losses bhi ho sakte hain. Pahle flexibility zyada thi, lekin ab ye $100 million ka cap kaafi chota hai. Banks ne RBI se is compliance ke liye 3 mahine ka extension maanga hai. Aur Rupee toh abhi bhi global situations aur strong dollar ki wajah se vulnerable hai. Aisa lag raha hai ki investors riskier assets se door jaa rahe hain, jaise ki mid-cap aur small-cap indices bhi 2.5% se zyada gire hain.
Aage Kya Ho Sakta Hai?
Analysts keh rahe hain ki abhi market mein volatility reh sakti hai. Sab kuch depend karega ki Middle East mein kya hota hai aur RBI ke naye forex rules implement kaise hote hain. Banking sector mein risk-reward abhi theek lag raha hai. ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Axis Bank jaise banks ache lag rahe hain, jinka earnings growth bhi 16% tak ho sakta hai. Lekin caution rehna zaroori hai. Nifty ke liye 22,000 ek important support level hai, aur neeche 21,700-21,750 tak ja sakta hai. Upar resistance 22,500-22,600 ke aas paas hai.